bayesRatings

Athletics at Astros

MLB · Sunday, Aug 23 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final ATH 7 – HOU 6
← MLB / Aug 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH0000601007101
HOU310200000680
Team box
ATH·HOU
10
hits
8
2
home runs
2
3
walks
6
16
strikeouts
10
158
pitches thrown
189
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brian ServenATH2-4113
Jose AltuveHOU1-4113
Isaac ParedesHOU1-3113
Max MuncyATH1-4111
Tommy WhiteATH1-5002
Henry BolteATH3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady BassoATH1.04300
Jack Perkins (W)ATH5.03156
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.00002
Cristian JavierHOU4.04328
Steven Okert (L)HOU1.01101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +6
ATH +6
123456789
largest lead: HOU 6 · ATH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 39%, HOU 61% · Updated Aug 23

Expected margin
HOU by 1.0
Expected score
HOU 5.3 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
9.6
AthleticsThe matchupAstros
+153Our fair odds−153
4.3Expected runs5.3
−0.39Power rating−0.04
4.3Runs / game4.5
5.8Allowed / game4.9
8.3Hits / game8.1
1.18Home runs / game1.32
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
50−80Season record65−65
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · HOU chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+15339%+15239.6%———
HOUHouston Astros−15361%−18364.6%———
SpreadHOU by 1.0
ATHAthletics+1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 1.0 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more44%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more34%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHBrady Basso RP · last 3 starts: 6.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 4 Kstarted
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·HOU
Aug 22 at HOU
last game
Aug 22 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
ATH·HOU
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.3
runs / game
4.5
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
50−80
season record
65−65
23−40
home record
33−34
27−40
away record
32−31
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.1
1.18
home runs / game
1.32
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.48
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

ATH · HOU · 148 days
AthleticsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Aug 22at HOUATH 4 − 3
Aug 21at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Jun 7at HOUATH 5 − 0
Jun 6at HOUHOU 13 − 2
Jun 5at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 5at ATHATH 12 − 10
Apr 4at ATHHOU 11 − 0
Apr 3at ATHATH 11 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 22at HOU4 − 3W
Aug 21at HOU0 − 4L
Aug 20at KC2 − 6L
Aug 19at KC7 − 9L
Aug 18at KC3 − 4L
Aug 17at KC5 − 9L
Aug 16vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 15vs TEX3 − 5L
Aug 14vs TEX8 − 3W
Aug 12vs TB4 − 8L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 22vs ATH3 − 4L
Aug 21vs ATH4 − 0W
Aug 20vs LAA3 − 18L
Aug 19vs LAA3 − 2W
Aug 18vs LAA1 − 3L
Aug 16vs SEA2 − 3L
Aug 15vs SEA5 − 10L
Aug 14vs SEA10 − 7W
Aug 12at SF2 − 1W
Aug 11at SF1 − 4L