bayesRatings

Athletics at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Aug 20 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final ATH 2 – KC 6
← MLB / Aug 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000020000281
KC102210006130
Team box
ATH·KC
8
hits
13
0
home runs
1
7
walks
5
6
strikeouts
6
155
pitches thrown
170
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bobby Witt Jr.KC3-4311
Salvador PerezKC3-5101
Michael MasseyKC3-4101
Isaac CollinsKC1-3102
Donovan WaltonATH1-3001
Brian ServenATH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gage Jump (L)ATH4.08533
Randy DobnakKC4.06044
Connor Thomas (W)KC1.21002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +5
ATH +5
123456789
largest lead: KC 5 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 43%, KC 57% · Updated Aug 20

Expected margin
KC by 0.6
Expected score
KC 5.0 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
9.4
AthleticsThe matchupRoyals
+134Our fair odds−134
4.4Expected runs5.0
−0.37Power rating−0.15
4.4Runs / game4.2
5.8Allowed / game5.0
8.3Hits / game8.2
1.20Home runs / game1.00
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
49−78Season record54−74
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · KC chance
Our model fair42.7%57.3%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+13443%+10947.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−13457%−13156.7%———
SpreadKC by 0.6
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 0.6 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more41%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 17 Kstarted
KCRandy Dobnak SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·KC
Aug 19 at KC
last game
Aug 19 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 127+ games
ATH·KC
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.4
runs / game
4.2
5.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
49−78
season record
54−74
23−40
home record
32−30
26−38
away record
22−44
L3
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.2
1.20
home runs / game
1.00
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.47
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ATH · KC · 145 days
AthleticsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Aug 19at KCKC 9 − 7
Aug 18at KCKC 4 − 3
Aug 17at KCKC 9 − 5
Apr 30at ATHATH 6 − 3
Apr 29at ATHATH 5 − 2
Apr 28at ATHKC 4 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at ATHKC 9 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at ATHKC 4 − 2
Sep 26, 2025at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at KCATH 3 − 2

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Aug 19at KC7 − 9L
Aug 18at KC3 − 4L
Aug 17at KC5 − 9L
Aug 16vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 15vs TEX3 − 5L
Aug 14vs TEX8 − 3W
Aug 12vs TB4 − 8L
Aug 11vs TB4 − 12L
Aug 10vs TB6 − 10L
Aug 9at BOS4 − 3W

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Aug 19vs ATH9 − 7W
Aug 18vs ATH4 − 3W
Aug 17vs ATH9 − 5W
Aug 16at LAA3 − 0W
Aug 15at LAA0 − 1L
Aug 14at LAA7 − 6W
Aug 12at LAD2 − 4L
Aug 11at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 10at LAD5 − 6L
Aug 9vs CHC2 − 10L