bayesRatings

Athletics at Astros

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 6:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final ATH 4 – HOU 3
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH0010000304101
HOU000100200360
Team box
ATH·HOU
10
hits
6
1
home runs
1
5
walks
2
8
strikeouts
14
141
pitches thrown
154
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daulton VarshoHOU2-4111
Donovan WaltonATH1-4111
Lawrence ButlerATH2-3101
Tommy WhiteATH3-4000
Jeff McNeilATH2-5100
Jeremy PenaHOU1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob LopezATH6.03119
Luis Medina (W)ATH1.03212
Elvis Alvarado (S)ATH1.00002
Hunter BrownHOU5.27134
Bennett Sousa (L)HOU0.12310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 2 · ATH 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 39%, HOU 61% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
HOU by 1.0
Expected score
HOU 5.3 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
9.7
AthleticsThe matchupAstros
+156Our fair odds−156
4.3Expected runs5.3
−0.40Power rating−0.03
4.3Runs / game4.6
5.8Allowed / game4.9
8.2Hits / game8.2
1.19Home runs / game1.32
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
49−80Season record65−64
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · HOU chance
Our model fair39.1%60.9%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+15639%+19833.5%———
HOUHouston Astros−15661%−23970.5%———
SpreadHOU by 1.0
ATHAthletics+1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 1.0 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more44%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more34%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 20 Kstarted
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·HOU
Aug 21 at HOU
last game
Aug 21 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
ATH·HOU
−0.40
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.3
runs / game
4.6
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
49−80
season record
65−64
23−40
home record
33−33
26−40
away record
32−31
L5
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.2
1.19
home runs / game
1.32
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.47
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

ATH · HOU · 147 days
AthleticsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Aug 21at HOUHOU 4 − 0
Jun 7at HOUATH 5 − 0
Jun 6at HOUHOU 13 − 2
Jun 5at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 5at ATHATH 12 − 10
Apr 4at ATHHOU 11 − 0
Apr 3at ATHATH 11 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Sep 23, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Aug 21at HOU0 − 4L
Aug 20at KC2 − 6L
Aug 19at KC7 − 9L
Aug 18at KC3 − 4L
Aug 17at KC5 − 9L
Aug 16vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 15vs TEX3 − 5L
Aug 14vs TEX8 − 3W
Aug 12vs TB4 − 8L
Aug 11vs TB4 − 12L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 21vs ATH4 − 0W
Aug 20vs LAA3 − 18L
Aug 19vs LAA3 − 2W
Aug 18vs LAA1 − 3L
Aug 16vs SEA2 − 3L
Aug 15vs SEA5 − 10L
Aug 14vs SEA10 − 7W
Aug 12at SF2 − 1W
Aug 11at SF1 − 4L
Aug 10at SF6 − 3W