bayesRatings

Padres at Mets

MLB · Monday, Aug 17 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final SD 1 – NYM 2
← MLB / Aug 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD010000000170
NYM20000000250
Team box
SD·NYM
7
hits
5
0
home runs
0
5
walks
2
5
strikeouts
7
118
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo BichetteNYM1-3001
Jake CronenworthSD2-3000
Marcus SemienNYM1-3000
Jorge PolancoNYM1-3000
Luis Robert Jr.NYM0-2001
Carson BengeNYM1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walker Buehler (L)SD6.02224
Nolan McLean (W)NYM6.06143
Daniel Duarte (S)NYM1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 2 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 52%, NYM 48% · Updated Aug 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.4 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupMets
−107Our fair odds+107
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating−0.03
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.12Home runs / game1.22
3.4Walks drawn / game3.2
67−58Season record56−69
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · NYM chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10752%+10548.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10748%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.2our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byNYM wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more37%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more27%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 9 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·NYM
Aug 16 at CLE
last game
Aug 16 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 125+ games
SD·NYM
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
67−58
season record
56−69
37−26
home record
28−34
30−32
away record
28−35
W1
streak
W3
8−2
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.12
home runs / game
1.22
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.42
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

SD · NYM · 142 days
San Diego PadresNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jun 7at SDNYM 7 − 3
Jun 6at SDSD 3 − 2
Jun 5at SDNYM 5 − 0
Sep 18, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at NYMSD 7 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at SDSD 5 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at SDSD 7 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at SDSD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2024at SDSD 3 − 2

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Aug 16at CLE5 − 0W
Aug 15at CLE1 − 6L
Aug 14at CLE7 − 5W
Aug 12vs MIL4 − 3W
Aug 11vs MIL11 − 2W
Aug 10vs MIL3 − 2W
Aug 9vs HOU7 − 2W
Aug 8vs HOU3 − 2W
Aug 7vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 6at ARI5 − 1W

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Aug 16vs WSH4 − 3W
Aug 15vs WSH5 − 4W
Aug 14vs WSH4 − 1W
Aug 12at ATL3 − 6L
Aug 11at ATL0 − 4L
Aug 10at ATL8 − 5W
Aug 9at PIT11 − 1W
Aug 8at PIT0 − 9L
Aug 7at PIT6 − 4W
Aug 6at CLE13 − 6W