bayesRatings

Brewers at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 25 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final MIL 2 – NYM 3
← MLB / Aug 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIL0001000010291
NYM00001100013110
Team box
MIL·NYM
9
hits
11
0
home runs
2
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
7
158
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco LindorNYM2-4211
Luis Robert Jr.NYM2-4111
William ContrerasMIL3-4200
Carson BengeNYM3-4000
Christian YelichMIL1-1001
Luis LaraMIL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle HarrisonMIL5.06115
Trevor Megill (L)MIL1.11021
Zac ThorntonNYM6.07104
Jonathan Pintaro (W)NYM1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
MIL +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYM 1 · MIL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, NYM 42% · Updated Aug 25

Expected margin
MIL by 1.2
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 3.7 NYM
Expected total
8.6
BrewersThe matchupMets
−136Our fair odds+136
4.9Expected runs3.7
+0.36Power rating−0.03
5.0Runs / game4.2
3.7Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game7.9
0.92Home runs / game1.23
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
81−50Season record59−72
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair57.7%42.3%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13658%−16862.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+13642%+14041.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.2
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.2our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.2 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 8%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byNYM wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more36%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA, 21 Kstarted
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·NYM
Aug 23 vs ATL
last game
Aug 23 at CHW
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 131+ games
MIL·NYM
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.0
runs / game
4.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
81−50
season record
59−72
45−24
home record
30−35
36−26
away record
29−37
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
7.9
0.92
home runs / game
1.23
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.44
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

MIL · NYM · 150 days
Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jul 22at MILMIL 4 − 3
Jul 21at MILNYM 4 − 0
Jul 20at MILMIL 8 − 3
Aug 10, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 3, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 3
Jul 2, 2025at NYMMIL 7 − 2
Oct 3, 2024at MILNYM 4 − 2post

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 23vs ATL2 − 4L
Aug 22vs ATL4 − 1W
Aug 21vs ATL2 − 1W
Aug 20vs SEA7 − 4W
Aug 19vs SEA5 − 7L
Aug 18vs SEA22 − 0W
Aug 16at LAD6 − 2W
Aug 15at LAD4 − 1W
Aug 14at LAD1 − 3L
Aug 13at LAD5 − 4W

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 23at CHW1 − 2L
Aug 22at CHW10 − 5W
Aug 21at CHW4 − 6L
Aug 19vs SD4 − 2W
Aug 18vs SD2 − 5L
Aug 17vs SD2 − 1W
Aug 16vs WSH4 − 3W
Aug 15vs WSH5 − 4W
Aug 14vs WSH4 − 1W
Aug 12at ATL3 − 6L