bayesRatings

Mets at White Sox

MLB · Friday, Aug 21 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final NYM 4 – CHW 6
← MLB / Aug 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM010210000480
CHW000004002660
Team box
NYM·CHW
8
hits
6
1
home runs
4
1
walks
3
9
strikeouts
7
126
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW2-3112
Randal GrichukCHW2-3111
Jake RogersCHW1-4112
Brett BatyNYM2-4002
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3111
Bo BichetteNYM1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean ManaeaNYM6.05424
Jefry Yan (L)NYM0.21210
Sean BurkeCHW6.07404
Grant Taylor (W)CHW1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: CHW 2 · NYM 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 48%, CHW 52% · Updated Aug 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.4 NYM
Expected total
9.1
MetsThe matchupWhite Sox
+108Our fair odds−108
4.4Expected runs4.7
−0.02Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game4.8
4.5Allowed / game4.4
7.9Hits / game8.0
1.21Home runs / game1.31
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
58−70Season record66−61
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CHW chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10848%+10947.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10852%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.3our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 25 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CHW
Aug 19 vs SD
last game
Aug 20 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 127+ games
NYM·CHW
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
4.8
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
58−70
season record
66−61
30−35
home record
37−25
28−35
away record
29−36
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.0
1.21
home runs / game
1.31
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.63
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

NYM · CHW · 146 days
New York MetsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHW 2−7
May 28, 2025at NYMCHW 9 − 4
May 27, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 4
May 26, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Sep 1, 2024at CHWNYM 2 − 0
Aug 31, 2024at CHWNYM 5 − 3
Aug 30, 2024at CHWNYM 5 − 1
Jul 20, 2023at NYMCHW 6 − 2
Jul 19, 2023at NYMNYM 5 − 1
Jul 18, 2023at NYMNYM 11 − 10

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Aug 19vs SD4 − 2W
Aug 18vs SD2 − 5L
Aug 17vs SD2 − 1W
Aug 16vs WSH4 − 3W
Aug 15vs WSH5 − 4W
Aug 14vs WSH4 − 1W
Aug 12at ATL3 − 6L
Aug 11at ATL0 − 4L
Aug 10at ATL8 − 5W
Aug 9at PIT11 − 1W

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 20vs ATL0 − 2L
Aug 19at CHC3 − 0W
Aug 18at CHC3 − 4L
Aug 17at CHC5 − 7L
Aug 16at DET7 − 5W
Aug 15at DET4 − 3W
Aug 14at DET9 − 5W
Aug 13vs CIN8 − 9L
Aug 12vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 11vs CIN4 − 5L