bayesRatings

Padres at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 18 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final SD 5 – NYM 2
← MLB / Aug 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD1000201015111
NYM000010010260
Team box
SD·NYM
11
hits
6
3
home runs
2
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
159
pitches thrown
159
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-5223
Manny MachadoSD3-4111
Luis TorrensNYM2-3111
Luis Robert Jr.NYM1-4111
Bo BichetteNYM2-5000
Ty FranceSD1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robbie Ray (W)SD6.03134
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00002
Zac Thornton (L)NYM5.07317

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · SD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 51%, NYM 49% · Updated Aug 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.5
PadresThe matchupMets
−105Our fair odds+105
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating−0.03
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.2Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.11Home runs / game1.21
3.4Walks drawn / game3.2
67−59Season record57−69
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · NYM chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10551%−12154.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10549%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.2our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins byNYM wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more37%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more27%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 12 Kstarted
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·NYM
Aug 17 at NYM
last game
Aug 17 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 126+ games
SD·NYM
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
67−59
season record
57−69
37−26
home record
29−34
30−33
away record
28−35
L1
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.11
home runs / game
1.21
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.42
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

SD · NYM · 143 days
San Diego PadresNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Aug 17at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Jun 7at SDNYM 7 − 3
Jun 6at SDSD 3 − 2
Jun 5at SDNYM 5 − 0
Sep 18, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at NYMSD 7 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at SDSD 5 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at SDSD 7 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at SDSD 7 − 6

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 17at NYM1 − 2L
Aug 16at CLE5 − 0W
Aug 15at CLE1 − 6L
Aug 14at CLE7 − 5W
Aug 12vs MIL4 − 3W
Aug 11vs MIL11 − 2W
Aug 10vs MIL3 − 2W
Aug 9vs HOU7 − 2W
Aug 8vs HOU3 − 2W
Aug 7vs HOU3 − 6L

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Aug 17vs SD2 − 1W
Aug 16vs WSH4 − 3W
Aug 15vs WSH5 − 4W
Aug 14vs WSH4 − 1W
Aug 12at ATL3 − 6L
Aug 11at ATL0 − 4L
Aug 10at ATL8 − 5W
Aug 9at PIT11 − 1W
Aug 8at PIT0 − 9L
Aug 7at PIT6 − 4W