bayesRatings

White Sox at Astros

MLB · Thursday, Sep 3 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final CHW 2 – HOU 6
← MLB / Sep 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW020000000270
HOU20400000680
Team box
CHW·HOU
7
hits
8
0
home runs
1
2
walks
3
10
strikeouts
5
124
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose AltuveHOU1-4112
Christian WalkerHOU2-4001
Daulton VarshoHOU1-4102
Jake RogersCHW1-3001
Miguel VargasCHW2-4000
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Castillo (L)CHW4.06623
Hunter Brown (W)HOU6.06227

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
CHW +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 4 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 49%, HOU 51% · Updated Sep 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
8.9
White SoxThe matchupAstros
+105Our fair odds−105
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.00Power rating−0.03
4.7Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.8
7.9Hits / game8.1
1.30Home runs / game1.31
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
73−66Season record71−69
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10549%+14041.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10551%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byHOU wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWLuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 8.74 ERA, 5 Kstarted
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·HOU
Sep 2 at HOU
last game
Sep 2 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 139+ games
CHW·HOU
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.7
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
73−66
season record
71−69
41−27
home record
35−36
32−39
away record
36−33
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.1
1.30
home runs / game
1.31
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.51
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CHW · HOU · 159 days
Chicago White SoxHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Sep 2at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Sep 1at HOUCHW 5 − 1
Aug 31at HOUHOU 6 − 3
Jul 26at CHWCHW 12 − 3
Jul 25at CHWHOU 4 − 1
Jul 24at CHWHOU 9 − 5
Jun 12, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at HOUCHW 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 4

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 2at HOU0 − 2L
Sep 1at HOU5 − 1W
Aug 31at HOU3 − 6L
Aug 30at MIN1 − 5L
Aug 29at MIN3 − 2W
Aug 28at MIN7 − 4W
Aug 26vs TEX10 − 4W
Aug 25vs TEX11 − 7W
Aug 24vs TEX2 − 11L
Aug 23vs NYM2 − 1W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 2vs CHW2 − 0W
Sep 1vs CHW1 − 5L
Aug 31vs CHW6 − 3W
Aug 30at NYM6 − 3W
Aug 29at NYM2 − 6L
Aug 28at NYM3 − 1W
Aug 27at NYY5 − 1W
Aug 26at NYY3 − 9L
Aug 25at NYY9 − 7W
Aug 23vs ATH6 − 7L