bayesRatings

White Sox at Twins

MLB · Sunday, Aug 30 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final CHW 1 – MIN 5
← MLB / Aug 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000000001160
MIN30100010590
Team box
CHW·MIN
6
hits
9
0
home runs
1
0
walks
2
5
strikeouts
3
132
pitches thrown
116
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luke KeaschallMIN2-3111
Josh BellMIN2-4102
Trevor LarnachMIN1-4002
Braden MontgomeryCHW1-4001
Sam AntonacciCHW2-4100
Brooks LeeMIN2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jordan Hicks (L)CHW0.21321
Zebby Matthews (W)MIN8.15105

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: MIN 5 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 52%, MIN 48% · Updated Aug 30

Expected margin
CHW by 0.7
Expected score
CHW 5.1 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.5
White SoxThe matchupTwins
−108Our fair odds+108
5.1Expected runs4.4
+0.01Power rating−0.14
4.8Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game5.0
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.33Home runs / game1.15
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
72−63Season record64−72
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIN chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox−10852%−10350.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10848%−12154.7%———
SpreadCHW by 0.7
CHWChicago White Sox−0.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago White Sox by 0.7 expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIN wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more33%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWJordan Hicks RP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 8.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIN
Aug 29 at MIN
last game
Aug 29 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
CHW·MIN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.8
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
72−63
season record
64−72
41−27
home record
35−33
31−36
away record
29−39
W4
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.33
home runs / game
1.15
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.52
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CHW · MIN · 155 days
Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
Aug 29at MINCHW 3 − 2
Aug 28at MINCHW 7 − 4
Jun 3at MINCHW 8 − 0
Jun 2at MINMIN 6 − 4
Jun 1at MINMIN 9 − 6
May 28at CHWCHW 6 − 2
May 27at CHWCHW 15 − 2
May 26at CHWMIN 5 − 3
May 25at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at MINCHW 11 − 8

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Aug 29at MIN3 − 2W
Aug 28at MIN7 − 4W
Aug 26vs TEX10 − 4W
Aug 25vs TEX11 − 7W
Aug 24vs TEX2 − 11L
Aug 23vs NYM2 − 1W
Aug 22vs NYM5 − 10L
Aug 21vs NYM6 − 4W
Aug 20vs ATL0 − 2L
Aug 19at CHC3 − 0W

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Aug 29vs CHW2 − 3L
Aug 28vs CHW4 − 7L
Aug 26at ATH4 − 7L
Aug 25at ATH2 − 4L
Aug 24at ATH9 − 6W
Aug 23at SD1 − 8L
Aug 22at SD5 − 7L
Aug 21at SD2 − 6L
Aug 19vs ATL6 − 4W
Aug 18vs ATL4 − 1W