bayesRatings

Twins at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 25 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final MIN 2 – ATH 4
← MLB / Aug 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000000200240
ATH02000200470
Team box
MIN·ATH
4
hits
7
0
home runs
1
3
walks
1
12
strikeouts
13
122
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carlos CortesATH1-3112
Donovan WaltonATH1-3001
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4100
Tommy WhiteATH1-4101
Royce LewisMIN2-4000
Kaelen CulpepperMIN1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj Bradley (L)MIN6.274111
Gage Jump (W)ATH6.13229
Elvis Alvarado (S)ATH1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 4 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 55%, ATH 45% · Updated Aug 25

Expected margin
MIN by 0.9
Expected score
MIN 6.0 – 5.0 ATH
Expected total
11.0
TwinsThe matchupAthletics
−123Our fair odds+123
6.0Expected runs5.0
−0.11Power rating−0.39
4.6Runs / game4.3
5.0Allowed / game5.8
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.15Home runs / game1.18
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
64−68Season record51−81
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · ATH chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins−12355%−15460.7%———
ATHAthletics+12345%+12943.7%———
SpreadMIN by 0.9
MINMinnesota Twins−0.9our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Twins by 0.9 expected
Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byATH wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more45%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more36%
Athletics wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·ATH
Aug 24 at ATH
last game
Aug 24 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
MIN·ATH
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.39
4.6
runs / game
4.3
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.8
64−68
season record
51−81
35−31
home record
23−41
29−37
away record
28−40
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.15
home runs / game
1.18
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.47
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

MIN · ATH · 150 days
Minnesota TwinsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Aug 24at ATHMIN 9 − 6
Jul 26at MINMIN 11 − 8
Jul 25at MINMIN 2 − 0
Jul 24at MINATH 2 − 0
Aug 21, 2025at MINATH 8 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at MINATH 4 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at MINATH 6 − 3
Jun 5, 2025at ATHATH 14 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at ATHMIN 6 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at ATHMIN 10 − 3

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 24at ATH9 − 6W
Aug 23at SD1 − 8L
Aug 22at SD5 − 7L
Aug 21at SD2 − 6L
Aug 19vs ATL6 − 4W
Aug 18vs ATL4 − 1W
Aug 17vs ATL4 − 2W
Aug 16vs PHI5 − 7L
Aug 15vs PHI1 − 9L
Aug 13vs PHI1 − 7L

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 24vs MIN6 − 9L
Aug 23at HOU7 − 6W
Aug 22at HOU4 − 3W
Aug 21at HOU0 − 4L
Aug 20at KC2 − 6L
Aug 19at KC7 − 9L
Aug 18at KC3 − 4L
Aug 17at KC5 − 9L
Aug 16vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 15vs TEX3 − 5L