bayesRatings

Twins at Padres

MLB · Friday, Aug 21 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final MIN 2 – SD 6
← MLB / Aug 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000200000220
SD20004000690
Team box
MIN·SD
2
hits
9
0
home runs
1
0
walks
4
7
strikeouts
9
124
pitches thrown
110
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ty FranceSD1-1113
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-4101
Kody ClemensMIN1-3002
Manny MachadoSD2-4101
Luis RengifoSD2-4101
Luke KeaschallMIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connor Prielipp (L)MIN6.08627
Randy Vasquez (W)SD7.02203

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: SD 4 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 44%, SD 56% · Updated Aug 21

Expected margin
SD by 0.7
Expected score
SD 4.5 – 3.9 MIN
Expected total
8.4
TwinsThe matchupPadres
+127Our fair odds−127
3.9Expected runs4.5
−0.09Power rating+0.09
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.2
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.15Home runs / game1.12
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
63−65Season record68−60
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SD chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12744%+10548.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12756%−12655.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more42%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 8.22 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SD
Aug 19 vs ATL
last game
Aug 19 at NYM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 128+ games
MIN·SD
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.2
63−65
season record
68−60
35−31
home record
37−26
28−34
away record
31−34
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.15
home runs / game
1.12
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.46
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

MIN · SD · 146 days
Minnesota TwinsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 5−5
Aug 31, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at MINSD 12 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 4
Aug 21, 2024at SDMIN 11 − 4
Aug 20, 2024at SDSD 7 − 5
Aug 19, 2024at SDSD 5 − 3
May 11, 2023at MINMIN 5 − 3
May 10, 2023at MINMIN 4 − 3
May 9, 2023at MINSD 6 − 1
Jul 31, 2022at SDSD 3 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Aug 19vs ATL6 − 4W
Aug 18vs ATL4 − 1W
Aug 17vs ATL4 − 2W
Aug 16vs PHI5 − 7L
Aug 15vs PHI1 − 9L
Aug 13vs PHI1 − 7L
Aug 12vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 11vs BAL2 − 5L
Aug 10vs BAL9 − 5W
Aug 9at MIL3 − 4L

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 19at NYM2 − 4L
Aug 18at NYM5 − 2W
Aug 17at NYM1 − 2L
Aug 16at CLE5 − 0W
Aug 15at CLE1 − 6L
Aug 14at CLE7 − 5W
Aug 12vs MIL4 − 3W
Aug 11vs MIL11 − 2W
Aug 10vs MIL3 − 2W
Aug 9vs HOU7 − 2W