bayesRatings

Twins at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 8:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final MIN 4 – ATH 7
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN120001000480
ATH000204107120
Team box
MIN·ATH
8
hits
12
3
home runs
1
3
walks
1
4
strikeouts
8
118
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor LarnachMIN2-4111
Alika WilliamsATH2-4102
Lawrence ButlerATH1-3211
Brooks LeeMIN1-4111
Kaelen CulpepperMIN1-3111
Darell HernaizATH2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connor PrielippMIN5.16315
Andrew Morris (L)MIN1.04301
J.T. Ginn (W)ATH6.06423
Elvis Alvarado (S)ATH1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 3 · MIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 55%, ATH 45% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
MIN by 0.9
Expected score
MIN 5.9 – 5.0 ATH
Expected total
10.9
TwinsThe matchupAthletics
−120Our fair odds+120
5.9Expected runs5.0
−0.11Power rating−0.37
4.6Runs / game4.3
5.0Allowed / game5.8
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.14Home runs / game1.18
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
64−69Season record52−81
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · ATH chance
Our model fair54.6%45.4%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins−12055%−13757.7%———
ATHAthletics+12045%+11446.7%———
SpreadMIN by 0.9
MINMinnesota Twins−0.9our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Twins by 0.9 expected
Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byATH wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more45%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more36%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 9.56 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·ATH
Aug 25 at ATH
last game
Aug 25 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 133+ games
MIN·ATH
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
4.6
runs / game
4.3
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.8
64−69
season record
52−81
35−31
home record
24−41
29−38
away record
28−40
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.14
home runs / game
1.18
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.47
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIN · ATH · 151 days
Minnesota TwinsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
Aug 25at ATHATH 4 − 2
Aug 24at ATHMIN 9 − 6
Jul 26at MINMIN 11 − 8
Jul 25at MINMIN 2 − 0
Jul 24at MINATH 2 − 0
Aug 21, 2025at MINATH 8 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at MINATH 4 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at MINATH 6 − 3
Jun 5, 2025at ATHATH 14 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at ATHMIN 6 − 1

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 25at ATH2 − 4L
Aug 24at ATH9 − 6W
Aug 23at SD1 − 8L
Aug 22at SD5 − 7L
Aug 21at SD2 − 6L
Aug 19vs ATL6 − 4W
Aug 18vs ATL4 − 1W
Aug 17vs ATL4 − 2W
Aug 16vs PHI5 − 7L
Aug 15vs PHI1 − 9L

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 25vs MIN4 − 2W
Aug 24vs MIN6 − 9L
Aug 23at HOU7 − 6W
Aug 22at HOU4 − 3W
Aug 21at HOU0 − 4L
Aug 20at KC2 − 6L
Aug 19at KC7 − 9L
Aug 18at KC3 − 4L
Aug 17at KC5 − 9L
Aug 16vs TEX5 − 2W