bayesRatings

Rangers at White Sox

MLB · Monday, Aug 24 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final TEX 11 – CHW 2
← MLB / Aug 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX21202101211140
CHW020000000250
Team box
TEX·CHW
14
hits
5
2
home runs
1
8
walks
3
6
strikeouts
11
132
pitches thrown
214
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corey SeagerTEX3-4103
Jake BurgerTEX2-3112
Wyatt LangfordTEX2-5212
Tristan PetersCHW1-4112
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-4102
Cody FreemanTEX2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kumar Rocker (W)TEX5.25238
Jose Urquidy (L)CHW3.06542

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +9
TEX +9
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · TEX 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 47%, CHW 53% · Updated Aug 24

Expected margin
CHW by 0.5
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.2 TEX
Expected total
8.8
RangersThe matchupWhite Sox
+115Our fair odds−115
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.07Power rating−0.01
4.0Runs / game4.8
4.3Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game8.0
1.09Home runs / game1.34
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
65−66Season record68−62
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · CHW chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11547%+10947.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−11553%−13757.7%———
SpreadCHW by 0.5
TEXTexas Rangers+0.5our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago White Sox by 0.5 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 7.62 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHWJose Urquidy RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·CHW
Aug 23 vs LAA
last game
Aug 23 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
TEX·CHW
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.0
runs / game
4.8
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.4
65−66
season record
68−62
36−29
home record
39−26
29−37
away record
29−36
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.0
1.09
home runs / game
1.34
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.41
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

TEX · CHW · 149 days
Texas RangersChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Jul 22at TEXCHW 4 − 2
Jul 21at TEXTEX 10 − 0
Jul 20at TEXCHW 10 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 4
Jun 13, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 1
May 25, 2025at CHWTEX 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at CHWCHW 10 − 5
May 23, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2024at CHWTEX 2 − 1

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 23vs LAA5 − 3W
Aug 22vs LAA0 − 3L
Aug 21vs LAA2 − 1W
Aug 20vs WSH2 − 0W
Aug 19vs WSH0 − 6L
Aug 18vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 16at ATH2 − 5L
Aug 15at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 14at ATH3 − 8L
Aug 13at LAA0 − 7L

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 23vs NYM2 − 1W
Aug 22vs NYM5 − 10L
Aug 21vs NYM6 − 4W
Aug 20vs ATL0 − 2L
Aug 19at CHC3 − 0W
Aug 18at CHC3 − 4L
Aug 17at CHC5 − 7L
Aug 16at DET7 − 5W
Aug 15at DET4 − 3W
Aug 14at DET9 − 5W