bayesRatings

Rangers at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final TEX 4 – CHW 10
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX002000200481
CHW0202240010150
Team box
TEX·CHW
8
hits
15
1
home runs
2
10
walks
6
8
strikeouts
6
172
pitches thrown
197
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brenton DoyleCHW2-4114
Tristan PetersCHW3-4212
Joc PedersonTEX1-3112
Sam AntonacciCHW2-3002
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-4002
Miguel VargasCHW2-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX3.28444
Sean BurkeCHW3.02283
Sean Newcomb (W)CHW3.02001
Jonathan Cannon (S)CHW3.04224

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +8
TEX +8
123456789
largest lead: CHW 8 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 47%, CHW 53% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.2 TEX
Expected total
8.9
RangersThe matchupWhite Sox
+113Our fair odds−113
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.06Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game4.8
4.4Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.11Home runs / game1.33
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
66−67Season record69−63
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · CHW chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11347%+10548.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−11353%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.4our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 21 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·CHW
Aug 25 at CHW
last game
Aug 25 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
TEX·CHW
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
4.8
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
66−67
season record
69−63
36−29
home record
40−27
30−38
away record
29−36
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.11
home runs / game
1.33
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.41
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TEX · CHW · 151 days
Texas RangersChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Aug 25at CHWCHW 11 − 7
Aug 24at CHWTEX 11 − 2
Jul 22at TEXCHW 4 − 2
Jul 21at TEXTEX 10 − 0
Jul 20at TEXCHW 10 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 4
Jun 13, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 1
May 25, 2025at CHWTEX 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at CHWCHW 10 − 5

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 25at CHW7 − 11L
Aug 24at CHW11 − 2W
Aug 23vs LAA5 − 3W
Aug 22vs LAA0 − 3L
Aug 21vs LAA2 − 1W
Aug 20vs WSH2 − 0W
Aug 19vs WSH0 − 6L
Aug 18vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 16at ATH2 − 5L
Aug 15at ATH5 − 3W

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 25vs TEX11 − 7W
Aug 24vs TEX2 − 11L
Aug 23vs NYM2 − 1W
Aug 22vs NYM5 − 10L
Aug 21vs NYM6 − 4W
Aug 20vs ATL0 − 2L
Aug 19at CHC3 − 0W
Aug 18at CHC3 − 4L
Aug 17at CHC5 − 7L
Aug 16at DET7 − 5W