bayesRatings

Red Sox at Rangers

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final BOS 2 – TEX 4
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS002000000260
TEX04000000471
Team box
BOS·TEX
6
hits
7
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
15
strikeouts
10
142
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick SogardBOS1-3112
Corey SeagerTEX2-4002
Elias DiazTEX1-2102
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-3100
Trevor StoryBOS1-3000
Jahmai JonesBOS1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick Sandoval (L)BOS2.24425
Jacob deGrom (W)TEX5.03218
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.21013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: TEX 4 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 54%, TEX 46% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 4.3 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.1
Red SoxThe matchupRangers
−117Our fair odds+117
4.3Expected runs3.8
+0.18Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.2
3.8Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game8.1
1.03Home runs / game1.15
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
82−68Season record74−76
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · TEX chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−11754%+11945.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers+11746%−14258.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byTEX wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPatrick Sandoval SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 16 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 27 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·TEX
Sep 13 vs KC
last game
Sep 13 at ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 150+ games
BOS·TEX
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
82−68
season record
74−76
38−37
home record
40−32
44−31
away record
34−44
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.1
1.03
home runs / game
1.15
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.51
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

BOS · TEX · 171 days
Boston Red SoxTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Jun 14at BOSTEX 6 − 4
Jun 13at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 12at BOSBOS 10 − 1
May 8, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 0
May 7, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
May 6, 2025at BOSTEX 6 − 1
Mar 30, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at TEXBOS 5 − 2

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 13vs KC4 − 1W
Sep 12vs KC5 − 1W
Sep 11vs KC2 − 3L
Sep 9vs LAA4 − 6L
Sep 8vs LAA1 − 6L
Sep 7vs LAA5 − 2W
Sep 6at BAL3 − 1W
Sep 5at BAL5 − 0W
Sep 4at BAL1 − 0W
Sep 3at BAL6 − 5W

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 13at ARI7 − 6W
Sep 12at ARI6 − 2W
Sep 11at ARI1 − 9L
Sep 10at SEA3 − 4L
Sep 9at SEA2 − 3L
Sep 8at SEA10 − 5W
Sep 6vs TB8 − 6W
Sep 5vs TB3 − 6L
Sep 4vs TB6 − 7L
Sep 3vs TB6 − 0W