bayesRatings

Rays at Rangers

MLB · Thursday, Sep 3 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final TB 0 – TEX 6
← MLB / Sep 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000000030
TEX00013002690
Team box
TB·TEX
3
hits
9
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
6
strikeouts
5
114
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corey SeagerTEX1-4112
Yandy DiazTB2-4000
Jake BurgerTEX1-3001
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-3101
Justin FoscueTEX1-2001
Evan CarterTEX1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahan (L)TB5.06413
Cal Quantrill (W)TEX7.02025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: TEX 6 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 53%, TEX 47% · Updated Sep 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 3.9 TEX
Expected total
8.1
RaysThe matchupRangers
−112Our fair odds+112
4.2Expected runs3.9
+0.12Power rating−0.07
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game4.4
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.12
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
83−56Season record69−71
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · TEX chance
Our model fair52.9%47.1%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−11253%−12655.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers+11247%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.3our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byTEX wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more27%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TEXCal Quantrill RP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·TEX
Sep 2 vs NYM
last game
Sep 2 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 139+ games
TB·TEX
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
83−56
season record
69−71
47−25
home record
38−30
36−31
away record
31−41
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.12
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.60
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

TB · TEX · 159 days
Tampa Bay RaysTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Jul 30at TBTB 3 − 2
Jul 29at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 28at TBTEX 4 − 1
Jun 5, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4
Jun 3, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 5, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at TEXTEX 13 − 2

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 2vs NYM4 − 10L
Sep 1vs NYM6 − 2W
Aug 31vs NYM2 − 3L
Aug 30vs SD5 − 4W
Aug 29vs SD7 − 6W
Aug 28vs SD9 − 4W
Aug 26at DET3 − 0W
Aug 25at DET1 − 4L
Aug 24at DET4 − 1W
Aug 23at BAL3 − 1W

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 2vs ATH2 − 9L
Sep 1vs ATH8 − 5W
Aug 31vs ATH8 − 1W
Aug 30at MIL7 − 4W
Aug 29at MIL3 − 5L
Aug 28at MIL1 − 6L
Aug 26at CHW4 − 10L
Aug 25at CHW7 − 11L
Aug 24at CHW11 − 2W
Aug 23vs LAA5 − 3W