bayesRatings

Athletics at Rangers

MLB · Monday, Aug 31 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final ATH 1 – TEX 8
← MLB / Aug 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000001130
TEX02113001890
Team box
ATH·TEX
3
hits
9
0
home runs
1
0
walks
5
11
strikeouts
3
151
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon NimmoTEX2-3102
Cody FreemanTEX2-4002
Justin FoscueTEX1-2111
Jake BurgerTEX2-4101
Jonah HeimATH1-3000
Carlos CortesATH1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gage Jump (L)ATH4.16732
Jacob deGrom (W)TEX7.01008

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +8
ATH +8
123456789
largest lead: TEX 8 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 40%, TEX 60% · Updated Aug 31

Expected margin
TEX by 0.9
Expected score
TEX 4.9 – 4.0 ATH
Expected total
8.8
AthleticsThe matchupRangers
+149Our fair odds−149
4.0Expected runs4.9
−0.40Power rating−0.07
4.4Runs / game4.0
5.7Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.0
1.17Home runs / game1.12
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
53−84Season record67−70
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TEX chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+14940%+18135.6%———
TEXTexas Rangers−14960%−21868.5%———
SpreadTEX by 0.9
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.9 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more43%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more33%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TEX
Aug 30 vs BAL
last game
Aug 30 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
ATH·TEX
−0.40
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.4
runs / game
4.0
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
53−84
season record
67−70
25−44
home record
36−29
28−40
away record
31−41
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.0
1.17
home runs / game
1.12
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.49
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

ATH · TEX · 156 days
AthleticsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Aug 16at ATHATH 5 − 2
Aug 15at ATHTEX 5 − 3
Aug 14at ATHATH 8 − 3
Apr 26at TEXATH 2 − 1
Apr 25at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 24at TEXATH 8 − 1
Apr 16at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Apr 15at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 14at ATHATH 2 − 1
Apr 13at ATHTEX 8 − 1

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 30vs BAL5 − 8L
Aug 29vs BAL3 − 5L
Aug 28vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 26vs MIN7 − 4W
Aug 25vs MIN4 − 2W
Aug 24vs MIN6 − 9L
Aug 23at HOU7 − 6W
Aug 22at HOU4 − 3W
Aug 21at HOU0 − 4L
Aug 20at KC2 − 6L

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 30at MIL7 − 4W
Aug 29at MIL3 − 5L
Aug 28at MIL1 − 6L
Aug 26at CHW4 − 10L
Aug 25at CHW7 − 11L
Aug 24at CHW11 − 2W
Aug 23vs LAA5 − 3W
Aug 22vs LAA0 − 3L
Aug 21vs LAA2 − 1W
Aug 20vs WSH2 − 0W