bayesRatings

Orioles at Athletics

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final BAL 4 – ATH 3
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
BAL0200000002460
ATH0000001101391
Team box
BAL·ATH
6
hits
9
0
home runs
1
6
walks
1
12
strikeouts
7
133
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonah HeimATH1-4111
Zack GelofATH2-4001
Coby MayoBAL2-4101
Max MuncyATH2-4000
Lawrence ButlerATH1-4001
Dylan BeaversBAL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon YoungBAL7.05114
Andrew Kittredge (W)BAL1.01002
Alex Hoppe (S)BAL1.01001
Jacob LopezATH5.03136
Brady Basso (L)ATH1.02112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
BAL +3
12345678910
largest lead: ATH 0 · BAL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 56%, ATH 44% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
BAL by 1.1
Expected score
BAL 5.9 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.7
OriolesThe matchupAthletics
−128Our fair odds+128
5.9Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating−0.36
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game5.7
7.9Hits / game8.3
1.22Home runs / game1.18
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
65−69Season record53−81
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · ATH chance
Our model fair56.1%43.9%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−12856%−11653.7%———
ATHAthletics+12844%−10350.7%———
SpreadBAL by 1.1
BALBaltimore Orioles−1.1our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.7
Over10.7our total————
Under10.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 1.1 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byATH wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more46%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more37%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.547%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·ATH
Aug 27 at STL
last game
Aug 26 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 134+ games
BAL·ATH
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.7
65−69
season record
53−81
34−34
home record
25−41
31−35
away record
28−40
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.3
1.22
home runs / game
1.18
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.61
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

BAL · ATH · 153 days
Baltimore OriolesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
May 10at BALBAL 2 − 1
May 9at BALATH 6 − 2
May 8at BALATH 4 − 3
Aug 10, 2025at BALATH 3 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at BALATH 11 − 3
Aug 8, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 7, 2025at ATHBAL 7 − 4
Jun 6, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 7, 2024at ATHBAL 6 − 3

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 27at STL5 − 7L
Aug 26at STL8 − 7W
Aug 25at STL13 − 1W
Aug 23vs TB1 − 3L
Aug 22vs TB3 − 2W
Aug 21vs TB5 − 3W
Aug 20vs NYY1 − 6L
Aug 19vs NYY3 − 5L
Aug 18vs NYY1 − 3L
Aug 17at TB6 − 7L

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 26vs MIN7 − 4W
Aug 25vs MIN4 − 2W
Aug 24vs MIN6 − 9L
Aug 23at HOU7 − 6W
Aug 22at HOU4 − 3W
Aug 21at HOU0 − 4L
Aug 20at KC2 − 6L
Aug 19at KC7 − 9L
Aug 18at KC3 − 4L
Aug 17at KC5 − 9L