bayesRatings

Rays at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, Aug 23 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TB 3 – BAL 1
← MLB / Aug 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000003000371
BAL000000001120
Team box
TB·BAL
7
hits
2
0
home runs
1
5
walks
0
3
strikeouts
5
126
pitches thrown
154
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colton CowserBAL2-3111
Chandler SimpsonTB2-3001
Junior CamineroTB1-3101
Yandy DiazTB1-4100
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4100
Liam HicksTB1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (W)TB6.01004
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01100
Shane Baz (L)BAL5.25333

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · TB 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 52%, BAL 48% · Updated Aug 23

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
8.9
RaysThe matchupOrioles
−108Our fair odds+108
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.10Power rating−0.05
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.7
8.8Hits / game7.8
1.05Home runs / game1.22
3.2Walks drawn / game3.8
76−53Season record63−67
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BAL chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10852%−10751.8%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10848%−11252.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBAL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 4.91 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BAL
Aug 22 at BAL
last game
Aug 22 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
TB·BAL
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.7
76−53
season record
63−67
43−23
home record
34−33
33−30
away record
29−34
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
7.8
1.05
home runs / game
1.22
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.60
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

TB · BAL · 148 days
Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 8−2
Aug 22at BALBAL 3 − 2
Aug 21at BALBAL 5 − 3
Aug 17at TBTB 7 − 6
Aug 16at TBBAL 10 − 2
Aug 15at TBBAL 4 − 3
Aug 14at TBBAL 6 − 5
May 27at BALBAL 11 − 2
May 26at BALBAL 6 − 1
May 25at BALBAL 9 − 7
May 20at TBTB 5 − 3

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Aug 22at BAL2 − 3L
Aug 21at BAL3 − 5L
Aug 20vs TOR1 − 5L
Aug 19vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 18vs TOR5 − 10L
Aug 17vs BAL7 − 6W
Aug 16vs BAL2 − 10L
Aug 15vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 14vs BAL5 − 6L
Aug 12at ATH8 − 4W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 22vs TB3 − 2W
Aug 21vs TB5 − 3W
Aug 20vs NYY1 − 6L
Aug 19vs NYY3 − 5L
Aug 18vs NYY1 − 3L
Aug 17at TB6 − 7L
Aug 16at TB10 − 2W
Aug 15at TB4 − 3W
Aug 14at TB6 − 5W
Aug 12at MIN5 − 7L