bayesRatings

Orioles at Rays

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 11:15 AM CT · Tropicana Field · Final BAL 10 – TB 2
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL0000370001090
TB000101000290
Team box
BAL·TB
9
hits
9
1
home runs
1
7
walks
1
7
strikeouts
10
143
pitches thrown
200
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colton CowserBAL2-5112
Ryan ViladeTB3-4211
Jackson HollidayBAL2-4203
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1-5003
Pete AlonsoBAL1-1102
Jorge MateoTB1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor Rogers (W)BAL6.07216
Freddy Peralta (L)TB4.21232

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +9
BAL +9
123456789
largest lead: TB 1 · BAL 9lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 44%, TB 56% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.5
OriolesThe matchupRays
+129Our fair odds−129
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.05Power rating+0.14
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.8Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game8.8
1.20Home runs / game1.05
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
60−63Season record74−48
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TB chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12944%+11945.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12956%−14258.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.8
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more32%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TB
Aug 15 at TB
last game
Aug 15 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 122+ games
BAL·TB
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.1
60−63
season record
74−48
32−30
home record
41−20
28−33
away record
33−28
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.8
hits / game
8.8
1.20
home runs / game
1.05
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.65
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BAL · TB · 141 days
Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Aug 15at TBBAL 4 − 3
Aug 14at TBBAL 6 − 5
May 27at BALBAL 11 − 2
May 26at BALBAL 6 − 1
May 25at BALBAL 9 − 7
May 20at TBTB 5 − 3
May 19at TBTB 4 − 1
May 18at TBTB 16 − 6
Sep 25, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at BALTB 6 − 2

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 15at TB4 − 3W
Aug 14at TB6 − 5W
Aug 12at MIN5 − 7L
Aug 11at MIN5 − 2W
Aug 10at MIN5 − 9L
Aug 9at TEX10 − 5W
Aug 8at TEX1 − 5L
Aug 7at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 6vs LAA1 − 4L
Aug 5vs LAA5 − 2W

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Aug 15vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 14vs BAL5 − 6L
Aug 12at ATH8 − 4W
Aug 11at ATH12 − 4W
Aug 10at ATH10 − 6W
Aug 9at SEA4 − 1W
Aug 8at SEA3 − 2W
Aug 7at SEA2 − 1W
Aug 5at COL4 − 0W
Aug 4at COL9 − 7W