bayesRatings

Orioles at Rays

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 5:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final BAL 4 – TB 3
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
BAL0100110001491
TB00100100103111
Team box
BAL·TB
9
hits
11
2
home runs
0
2
walks
5
15
strikeouts
5
157
pitches thrown
153
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL3-5111
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1-5111
Leody TaverasBAL2-4001
Jonathan ArandaTB3-5000
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-5001
Yandy DiazTB2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle BradishBAL6.07243
Andrew Kittredge (W)BAL1.03100
Cam Sanders (S)BAL1.00012
Ian SeymourTB6.06319
Bryan Baker (L)TB1.02012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
BAL +3
12345678910
largest lead: TB 0 · BAL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 43%, TB 57% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.5
OriolesThe matchupRays
+132Our fair odds−132
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.06Power rating+0.15
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.8Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game8.7
1.19Home runs / game1.06
3.9Walks drawn / game3.3
59−63Season record74−47
5−5Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TB chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+13243%+12943.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−13257%−15460.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.8
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more32%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TB
Aug 14 at TB
last game
Aug 14 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 121+ games
BAL·TB
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.1
59−63
season record
74−47
32−30
home record
41−19
27−33
away record
33−28
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
9−1
7.8
hits / game
8.7
1.19
home runs / game
1.06
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.65
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BAL · TB · 140 days
Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Aug 14at TBBAL 6 − 5
May 27at BALBAL 11 − 2
May 26at BALBAL 6 − 1
May 25at BALBAL 9 − 7
May 20at TBTB 5 − 3
May 19at TBTB 4 − 1
May 18at TBTB 16 − 6
Sep 25, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at BALTB 6 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 14at TB6 − 5W
Aug 12at MIN5 − 7L
Aug 11at MIN5 − 2W
Aug 10at MIN5 − 9L
Aug 9at TEX10 − 5W
Aug 8at TEX1 − 5L
Aug 7at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 6vs LAA1 − 4L
Aug 5vs LAA5 − 2W
Aug 4vs LAA3 − 1W

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Aug 14vs BAL5 − 6L
Aug 12at ATH8 − 4W
Aug 11at ATH12 − 4W
Aug 10at ATH10 − 6W
Aug 9at SEA4 − 1W
Aug 8at SEA3 − 2W
Aug 7at SEA2 − 1W
Aug 5at COL4 − 0W
Aug 4at COL9 − 7W
Aug 3at COL13 − 9W