bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 18 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final TOR 10 – TB 5
← MLB / Aug 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR20222020010170
TB0003000205131
Team box
TOR·TB
17
hits
13
3
home runs
0
3
walks
0
7
strikeouts
3
129
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alejandro KirkTOR3-6213
Josh SmithTOR2-4112
George SpringerTOR3-4101
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-5111
Taylor WallsTB1-4002
Ernie ClementTOR3-5300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (W)TOR5.29302
Nick Martinez (L)TB3.29625

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +7
TOR +7
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · TOR 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 46%, TB 54% · Updated Aug 18

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 3.9 TOR
Expected total
8.3
Blue JaysThe matchupRays
+118Our fair odds−118
3.9Expected runs4.5
+0.02Power rating+0.13
3.9Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.1Hits / game8.8
0.92Home runs / game1.06
2.7Walks drawn / game3.3
61−65Season record75−49
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+11846%+11446.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11854%−13757.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.15 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 4.35 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·TB
Aug 16 vs NYY
last game
Aug 17 vs BAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 124+ games
TOR·TB
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
3.9
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
61−65
season record
75−49
33−33
home record
42−21
28−32
away record
33−28
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.8
0.92
home runs / game
1.06
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.62
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TOR · TB · 143 days
Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 8−2
Jul 23at TORTOR 3 − 1
Jul 22at TORTB 4 − 2
Jul 21at TORTB 12 − 2
Jul 20at TORTB 7 − 1
May 13at TORTOR 5 − 3
May 12at TORTB 7 − 6
May 11at TORTB 8 − 5
May 6at TBTB 3 − 0
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3
May 4at TBTB 5 − 1

TOR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 16vs NYY3 − 4L
Aug 15vs NYY4 − 1W
Aug 14vs NYY3 − 1W
Aug 13vs BOS0 − 7L
Aug 12vs BOS6 − 4W
Aug 11vs BOS5 − 3W
Aug 10vs BOS2 − 1W
Aug 9at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 8at PHI7 − 5W
Aug 7at PHI5 − 4W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Aug 17vs BAL7 − 6W
Aug 16vs BAL2 − 10L
Aug 15vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 14vs BAL5 − 6L
Aug 12at ATH8 − 4W
Aug 11at ATH12 − 4W
Aug 10at ATH10 − 6W
Aug 9at SEA4 − 1W
Aug 8at SEA3 − 2W
Aug 7at SEA2 − 1W