bayesRatings

Yankees at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Aug 14 · 6:15 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final NYY 1 – TOR 3
← MLB / Aug 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000001000152
TOR00000201380
Team box
NYY·TOR
5
hits
8
1
home runs
1
1
walks
2
5
strikeouts
8
121
pitches thrown
114
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alejandro KirkTOR2-3112
Trent GrishamNYY2-4111
Brett BatemanTOR2-4000
Ryan McMahonNYY1-3000
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4000
Spencer JonesNYY1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gerrit Cole (L)NYY6.05125
Shane Bieber (W)TOR6.04115
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · NYY 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 53%, TOR 47% · Updated Aug 14

Expected margin
NYY by 0.6
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 3.9 TOR
Expected total
8.3
YankeesThe matchupBlue Jays
−111Our fair odds+111
4.5Expected runs3.9
+0.19Power rating+0.01
4.5Runs / game3.9
3.8Allowed / game4.4
7.6Hits / game8.1
1.40Home runs / game0.93
3.7Walks drawn / game2.7
68−53Season record59−64
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TOR chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11153%−14859.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+11147%+12444.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.6
NYYNew York Yankees−0.6our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.6 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTOR wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more41%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more30%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.45 ERA, 21 Kstarted
TORShane Bieber SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 7.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TOR
Aug 13 vs SEA
last game
Aug 13 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 121+ games
NYY·TOR
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.5
runs / game
3.9
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
68−53
season record
59−64
31−27
home record
31−32
37−26
away record
28−32
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.1
1.40
home runs / game
0.93
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.7
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.52
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

NYY · TOR · 139 days
New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Jun 14at TORNYY 8 − 3
Jun 13at TORNYY 3 − 1
Jun 12at TORTOR 8 − 5
May 21at NYYTOR 2 − 0
May 20at NYYTOR 2 − 1
May 19at NYYNYY 5 − 4
May 18at NYYNYY 7 − 6
Oct 8, 2025at NYYTOR 5 − 2post
Oct 7, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6post
Oct 5, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 7post

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 13vs SEA0 − 1L
Aug 12vs SEA10 − 5W
Aug 11vs SEA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs ATL1 − 2L
Aug 8vs ATL5 − 4W
Aug 7vs ATL3 − 2W
Aug 5vs STL1 − 3L
Aug 4vs STL2 − 0W
Aug 3vs STL7 − 13L
Aug 2at CHC2 − 1W

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 13vs BOS0 − 7L
Aug 12vs BOS6 − 4W
Aug 11vs BOS5 − 3W
Aug 10vs BOS2 − 1W
Aug 9at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 8at PHI7 − 5W
Aug 7at PHI5 − 4W
Aug 6at CHC2 − 3L
Aug 5at HOU5 − 4W
Aug 4at HOU2 − 7L