bayesRatings

Yankees at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final NYY 1 – TOR 4
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY010000000140
TOR001000124100
Team box
NYY·TOR
4
hits
10
0
home runs
0
2
walks
5
9
strikeouts
9
157
pitches thrown
115
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Charles McAdooTOR2-4002
George Lombard Jr.NYY1-2001
Nathan LukesTOR1-3001
Ernie ClementTOR2-2100
Alejandro KirkTOR1-3001
Brett BatemanTOR2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam SchlittlerNYY5.14137
Brent Headrick (L)NYY1.03101
Braydon FisherTOR1.00010
Spencer Miles (W)TOR1.01001
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 3 · NYY 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 52%, TOR 48% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
NYY by 0.6
Expected score
NYY 4.4 – 3.8 TOR
Expected total
8.2
YankeesThe matchupBlue Jays
−109Our fair odds+109
4.4Expected runs3.8
+0.18Power rating+0.02
4.5Runs / game3.9
3.8Allowed / game4.4
7.6Hits / game8.1
1.39Home runs / game0.94
3.6Walks drawn / game2.7
68−54Season record60−64
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TOR chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10952%−19165.6%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+10948%+15938.6%———
SpreadNYY by 0.6
NYYNew York Yankees−0.6our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.6 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 18%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTOR wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more41%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more30%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 25 Kstarted
TORBraydon Fisher RP · last 3 starts: 3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TOR
Aug 14 at TOR
last game
Aug 14 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 122+ games
NYY·TOR
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.5
runs / game
3.9
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
68−54
season record
60−64
31−27
home record
32−32
37−27
away record
28−32
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.1
1.39
home runs / game
0.94
3.6
walks drawn / game
2.7
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.53
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

NYY · TOR · 140 days
New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Aug 14at TORTOR 3 − 1
Jun 14at TORNYY 8 − 3
Jun 13at TORNYY 3 − 1
Jun 12at TORTOR 8 − 5
May 21at NYYTOR 2 − 0
May 20at NYYTOR 2 − 1
May 19at NYYNYY 5 − 4
May 18at NYYNYY 7 − 6
Oct 8, 2025at NYYTOR 5 − 2post
Oct 7, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6post

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 14at TOR1 − 3L
Aug 13vs SEA0 − 1L
Aug 12vs SEA10 − 5W
Aug 11vs SEA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs ATL1 − 2L
Aug 8vs ATL5 − 4W
Aug 7vs ATL3 − 2W
Aug 5vs STL1 − 3L
Aug 4vs STL2 − 0W
Aug 3vs STL7 − 13L

TOR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Aug 14vs NYY3 − 1W
Aug 13vs BOS0 − 7L
Aug 12vs BOS6 − 4W
Aug 11vs BOS5 − 3W
Aug 10vs BOS2 − 1W
Aug 9at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 8at PHI7 − 5W
Aug 7at PHI5 − 4W
Aug 6at CHC2 − 3L
Aug 5at HOU5 − 4W