bayesRatings

Yankees at Orioles

MLB · Thursday, Aug 20 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final NYY 6 – BAL 1
← MLB / Aug 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY0030020106110
BAL000010000141
Team box
NYY·BAL
11
hits
4
2
home runs
1
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
12
139
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY3-4211
Spencer JonesNYY3-4211
Dylan BeaversBAL1-3111
Pete AlonsoBAL2-4000
Heliot RamosNYY1-4001
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gerrit Cole (W)NYY6.04118
Ryan Yarbrough (S)NYY3.00004
Kyle Bradish (L)BAL5.28325

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · NYY 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, BAL 46% · Updated Aug 20

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 4.0 BAL
Expected total
8.8
YankeesThe matchupOrioles
−119Our fair odds+119
4.8Expected runs4.0
+0.19Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.5
3.7Allowed / game4.8
7.6Hits / game7.9
1.37Home runs / game1.21
3.6Walks drawn / game3.8
71−55Season record61−66
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BAL chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11954%−11653.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11946%−10751.8%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBAL wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 19 Kstarted
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BAL
Aug 19 at BAL
last game
Aug 19 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 126+ games
NYY·BAL
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.5
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
71−55
season record
61−66
31−27
home record
32−32
40−28
away record
29−34
W3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
7.9
1.37
home runs / game
1.21
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.53
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

NYY · BAL · 145 days
New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 2−8
Aug 19at BALNYY 5 − 3
Aug 18at BALNYY 3 − 1
May 13at BALBAL 7 − 0
May 12at BALNYY 6 − 2
May 11at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 4at NYYNYY 12 − 1
May 3at NYYNYY 11 − 3
May 2at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 1at NYYNYY 7 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Aug 19at BAL5 − 3W
Aug 18at BAL3 − 1W
Aug 16at TOR4 − 3W
Aug 15at TOR1 − 4L
Aug 14at TOR1 − 3L
Aug 13vs SEA0 − 1L
Aug 12vs SEA10 − 5W
Aug 11vs SEA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs ATL1 − 2L
Aug 8vs ATL5 − 4W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Aug 19vs NYY3 − 5L
Aug 18vs NYY1 − 3L
Aug 17at TB6 − 7L
Aug 16at TB10 − 2W
Aug 15at TB4 − 3W
Aug 14at TB6 − 5W
Aug 12at MIN5 − 7L
Aug 11at MIN5 − 2W
Aug 10at MIN5 − 9L
Aug 9at TEX10 − 5W