bayesRatings

Yankees at Orioles

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 18 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final NYY 3 – BAL 1
← MLB / Aug 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY001000200351
BAL001000000140
Team box
NYY·BAL
5
hits
4
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
14
strikeouts
9
141
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trent GrishamNYY2-4113
Coby MayoBAL1-3111
Leody TaverasBAL2-4000
George Lombard Jr.NYY2-4100
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4000
Spencer JonesNYY1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carlos RodonNYY4.02124
Yerry De los Santos (W)NYY2.01000
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00002
Shane Baz (L)BAL6.143210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · NYY 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, BAL 46% · Updated Aug 18

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 4.9 – 4.1 BAL
Expected total
9.0
YankeesThe matchupOrioles
−117Our fair odds+117
4.9Expected runs4.1
+0.18Power rating−0.04
4.4Runs / game4.6
3.8Allowed / game4.8
7.6Hits / game7.9
1.38Home runs / game1.21
3.6Walks drawn / game3.8
69−55Season record61−64
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BAL chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11754%−11653.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11746%−10350.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBAL wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BAL
Aug 16 at TOR
last game
Aug 17 at TB
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 124+ games
NYY·BAL
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.4
runs / game
4.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
69−55
season record
61−64
31−27
home record
32−30
38−28
away record
29−34
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
7.9
1.38
home runs / game
1.21
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.53
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

NYY · BAL · 143 days
New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 2−8
May 13at BALBAL 7 − 0
May 12at BALNYY 6 − 2
May 11at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 4at NYYNYY 12 − 1
May 3at NYYNYY 11 − 3
May 2at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 1at NYYNYY 7 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 16at TOR4 − 3W
Aug 15at TOR1 − 4L
Aug 14at TOR1 − 3L
Aug 13vs SEA0 − 1L
Aug 12vs SEA10 − 5W
Aug 11vs SEA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs ATL1 − 2L
Aug 8vs ATL5 − 4W
Aug 7vs ATL3 − 2W
Aug 5vs STL1 − 3L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 17at TB6 − 7L
Aug 16at TB10 − 2W
Aug 15at TB4 − 3W
Aug 14at TB6 − 5W
Aug 12at MIN5 − 7L
Aug 11at MIN5 − 2W
Aug 10at MIN5 − 9L
Aug 9at TEX10 − 5W
Aug 8at TEX1 − 5L
Aug 7at TEX1 − 2L