bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 19 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final TOR 6 – TB 7
← MLB / Aug 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000141000690
TB20050000781
Team box
TOR·TB
9
hits
8
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
5
119
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alejandro KirkTOR2-5112
Charles McAdooTOR3-4102
Yandy DiazTB1-3212
Richie PalaciosTB1-4102
Taylor WallsTB1-2101
Chandler SimpsonTB1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Scherzer (L)TOR4.05731
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB5.07525
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +6
TOR +6
123456789
largest lead: TB 6 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 46%, TB 54% · Updated Aug 19

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
Expected total
8.4
Blue JaysThe matchupRays
+116Our fair odds−116
4.0Expected runs4.5
+0.03Power rating+0.12
4.0Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game4.2
8.2Hits / game8.8
0.94Home runs / game1.06
2.7Walks drawn / game3.3
62−65Season record75−50
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+11646%+16637.6%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11654%−19966.6%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·TB
Aug 18 at TB
last game
Aug 18 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 125+ games
TOR·TB
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.0
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.2
62−65
season record
75−50
33−33
home record
42−22
29−32
away record
33−28
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.8
0.94
home runs / game
1.06
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.61
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TOR · TB · 144 days
Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
Aug 18at TBTOR 10 − 5
Jul 23at TORTOR 3 − 1
Jul 22at TORTB 4 − 2
Jul 21at TORTB 12 − 2
Jul 20at TORTB 7 − 1
May 13at TORTOR 5 − 3
May 12at TORTB 7 − 6
May 11at TORTB 8 − 5
May 6at TBTB 3 − 0
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3

TOR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Aug 18at TB10 − 5W
Aug 16vs NYY3 − 4L
Aug 15vs NYY4 − 1W
Aug 14vs NYY3 − 1W
Aug 13vs BOS0 − 7L
Aug 12vs BOS6 − 4W
Aug 11vs BOS5 − 3W
Aug 10vs BOS2 − 1W
Aug 9at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 8at PHI7 − 5W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 18vs TOR5 − 10L
Aug 17vs BAL7 − 6W
Aug 16vs BAL2 − 10L
Aug 15vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 14vs BAL5 − 6L
Aug 12at ATH8 − 4W
Aug 11at ATH12 − 4W
Aug 10at ATH10 − 6W
Aug 9at SEA4 − 1W
Aug 8at SEA3 − 2W