bayesRatings

Rays at Orioles

MLB · Friday, Aug 21 · 6:15 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TB 3 – BAL 5
← MLB / Aug 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB030000000371
BAL11003000580
Team box
TB·BAL
7
hits
8
1
home runs
2
1
walks
1
10
strikeouts
6
109
pitches thrown
127
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL2-4113
Kenny PiperTB1-3112
Dylan BeaversBAL1-3111
Colton CowserBAL2-3100
Jackson HollidayBAL1-3101
Ryan ViladeTB2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy Peralta (L)TB7.07516
Trevor Rogers (W)BAL7.06316
Rico Garcia (S)BAL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · TB 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 53%, BAL 47% · Updated Aug 21

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.8 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.0
RaysThe matchupOrioles
−112Our fair odds+112
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.11Power rating−0.06
4.6Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.8
8.8Hits / game7.8
1.05Home runs / game1.21
3.2Walks drawn / game3.8
76−51Season record61−67
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BAL chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−11253%+10149.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11247%−12154.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBAL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 10 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BAL
Aug 20 vs TOR
last game
Aug 20 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 127+ games
TB·BAL
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.6
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.8
76−51
season record
61−67
43−23
home record
32−33
33−28
away record
29−34
L1
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
7.8
1.05
home runs / game
1.21
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.60
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

TB · BAL · 146 days
Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Aug 17at TBTB 7 − 6
Aug 16at TBBAL 10 − 2
Aug 15at TBBAL 4 − 3
Aug 14at TBBAL 6 − 5
May 27at BALBAL 11 − 2
May 26at BALBAL 6 − 1
May 25at BALBAL 9 − 7
May 20at TBTB 5 − 3
May 19at TBTB 4 − 1
May 18at TBTB 16 − 6

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 20vs TOR1 − 5L
Aug 19vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 18vs TOR5 − 10L
Aug 17vs BAL7 − 6W
Aug 16vs BAL2 − 10L
Aug 15vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 14vs BAL5 − 6L
Aug 12at ATH8 − 4W
Aug 11at ATH12 − 4W
Aug 10at ATH10 − 6W

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Aug 20vs NYY1 − 6L
Aug 19vs NYY3 − 5L
Aug 18vs NYY1 − 3L
Aug 17at TB6 − 7L
Aug 16at TB10 − 2W
Aug 15at TB4 − 3W
Aug 14at TB6 − 5W
Aug 12at MIN5 − 7L
Aug 11at MIN5 − 2W
Aug 10at MIN5 − 9L