bayesRatings

Orioles at Cardinals

MLB · Thursday, Aug 27 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final BAL 5 – STL 7
← MLB / Aug 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000010310570
STL03021001790
Team box
BAL·STL
7
hits
9
1
home runs
2
2
walks
3
11
strikeouts
13
144
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Coby MayoBAL1-4113
Blaze JordanSTL1-3113
Ramon UriasSTL1-3212
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4201
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4001
Colton CowserBAL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL5.07617
Gordon GraceffoSTL3.00004
Luis Gastelum (W)STL1.10002
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
BAL +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 5 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, STL 52% · Updated Aug 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.5 – 4.5 BAL
Expected total
9.0
OriolesThe matchupCardinals
+108Our fair odds−108
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.03
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game4.5
7.9Hits / game8.1
1.23Home runs / game1.04
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
65−68Season record66−68
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10848%−13156.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10852%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore OriolesPKour margin————
STLSt. Louis CardinalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more26%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 16 Kstarted
STLGordon Graceffo RP · last 1 start: 3.1 IP, 8.10 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·STL
Aug 26 at STL
last game
Aug 26 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 133+ games
BAL·STL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
65−68
season record
66−68
34−34
home record
32−36
31−34
away record
34−32
W2
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
8.1
1.23
home runs / game
1.04
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.62
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

BAL · STL · 152 days
Baltimore OriolesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
Aug 26at STLBAL 8 − 7
Aug 25at STLBAL 13 − 1
May 28, 2025at BALSTL 6 − 4
May 27, 2025at BALSTL 7 − 4
May 26, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 2
May 22, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 4
May 21, 2024at STLSTL 3 − 1
May 20, 2024at STLSTL 6 − 3
Sep 13, 2023at BALSTL 1 − 0
Sep 12, 2023at BALSTL 5 − 2

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 26at STL8 − 7W
Aug 25at STL13 − 1W
Aug 23vs TB1 − 3L
Aug 22vs TB3 − 2W
Aug 21vs TB5 − 3W
Aug 20vs NYY1 − 6L
Aug 19vs NYY3 − 5L
Aug 18vs NYY1 − 3L
Aug 17at TB6 − 7L
Aug 16at TB10 − 2W

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Aug 26vs BAL7 − 8L
Aug 25vs BAL1 − 13L
Aug 23at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 22at PHI3 − 12L
Aug 21at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 20at CIN10 − 9W
Aug 19at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 18at CIN3 − 0W
Aug 17at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 17at CIN2 − 1W