bayesRatings

Rangers at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final TEX 1 – MIL 6
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX001000000121
MIL200001126140
Team box
TEX·MIL
2
hits
14
1
home runs
0
1
walks
4
12
strikeouts
2
154
pitches thrown
128
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL2-4003
Christian YelichMIL3-5001
Danny JansenTEX1-3111
David HamiltonMIL2-4101
Jake BauersMIL2-2200
Sal FrelickMIL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cody Bradford (L)TEX5.29320
Logan Henderson (W)MIL7.01107

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: MIL 5 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 38%, MIL 62% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
MIL by 1.6
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.5 TEX
Expected total
8.5
RangersThe matchupBrewers
+167Our fair odds−167
3.5Expected runs5.0
−0.07Power rating+0.37
4.1Runs / game5.0
4.4Allowed / game3.7
8.1Hits / game8.6
1.11Home runs / game0.92
3.3Walks drawn / game4.1
66−68Season record83−51
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · MIL chance
Our model fair37.5%62.5%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+16738%+18135.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−16762%−21868.5%———
SpreadMIL by 1.6
TEXTexas Rangers+1.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.6 expected
Texas Rangers by 15 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more50%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more39%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXCody Bradford SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 8 Kstarted
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·MIL
Aug 26 at CHW
last game
Aug 27 at NYM
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 134+ games
TEX·MIL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
4.1
runs / game
5.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.7
66−68
season record
83−51
36−29
home record
45−24
30−39
away record
38−27
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.6
1.11
home runs / game
0.92
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.42
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TEX · MIL · 153 days
Texas RangersMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 6−3
Sep 10, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 4
Sep 8, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 0
Jun 26, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 5
Jun 25, 2024at MILMIL 3 − 1
Jun 24, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 3
Aug 20, 2023at TEXMIL 6 − 2
Aug 19, 2023at TEXMIL 6 − 1
Aug 18, 2023at TEXMIL 9 − 8

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 26at CHW4 − 10L
Aug 25at CHW7 − 11L
Aug 24at CHW11 − 2W
Aug 23vs LAA5 − 3W
Aug 22vs LAA0 − 3L
Aug 21vs LAA2 − 1W
Aug 20vs WSH2 − 0W
Aug 19vs WSH0 − 6L
Aug 18vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 16at ATH2 − 5L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Aug 27at NYM8 − 2W
Aug 26at NYM8 − 1W
Aug 25at NYM2 − 3L
Aug 23vs ATL2 − 4L
Aug 22vs ATL4 − 1W
Aug 21vs ATL2 − 1W
Aug 20vs SEA7 − 4W
Aug 19vs SEA5 − 7L
Aug 18vs SEA22 − 0W
Aug 16at LAD6 − 2W