bayesRatings

Orioles at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Aug 29 · 9:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final BAL 5 – ATH 3
← MLB / Aug 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL001012001570
ATH0000020103103
Team box
BAL·ATH
7
hits
10
1
home runs
0
5
walks
6
9
strikeouts
7
144
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Leody TaverasBAL2-3003
Colton CowserBAL1-4211
Carlos CortesATH2-4001
Jeff McNeilATH2-4100
Donovan WaltonATH1-2101
Lawrence ButlerATH1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Baz (W)BAL5.25234
Andrew Kittredge (S)BAL1.02000
Jack Perkins (L)ATH5.04145

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · BAL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 57%, ATH 43% · Updated Aug 29

Expected margin
BAL by 1.1
Expected score
BAL 5.9 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.7
OriolesThe matchupAthletics
−130Our fair odds+130
5.9Expected runs4.8
−0.03Power rating−0.37
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game5.7
7.9Hits / game8.3
1.21Home runs / game1.18
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
66−69Season record53−82
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · ATH chance
Our model fair56.5%43.5%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−13057%−14859.7%———
ATHAthletics+13043%+12444.7%———
SpreadBAL by 1.1
BALBaltimore Orioles−1.1our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.7
Over10.7our total————
Under10.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 1.1 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byATH wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more46%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more37%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.547%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 11.47 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·ATH
Aug 28 at ATH
last game
Aug 28 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
BAL·ATH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.7
66−69
season record
53−82
34−34
home record
25−42
32−35
away record
28−40
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.3
1.21
home runs / game
1.18
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.61
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

BAL · ATH · 154 days
Baltimore OriolesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
Aug 28at ATHBAL 4 − 3
May 10at BALBAL 2 − 1
May 9at BALATH 6 − 2
May 8at BALATH 4 − 3
Aug 10, 2025at BALATH 3 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at BALATH 11 − 3
Aug 8, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 7, 2025at ATHBAL 7 − 4
Jun 6, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 28at ATH4 − 3W
Aug 27at STL5 − 7L
Aug 26at STL8 − 7W
Aug 25at STL13 − 1W
Aug 23vs TB1 − 3L
Aug 22vs TB3 − 2W
Aug 21vs TB5 − 3W
Aug 20vs NYY1 − 6L
Aug 19vs NYY3 − 5L
Aug 18vs NYY1 − 3L

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 28vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 26vs MIN7 − 4W
Aug 25vs MIN4 − 2W
Aug 24vs MIN6 − 9L
Aug 23at HOU7 − 6W
Aug 22at HOU4 − 3W
Aug 21at HOU0 − 4L
Aug 20at KC2 − 6L
Aug 19at KC7 − 9L
Aug 18at KC3 − 4L