bayesRatings

Padres at Rays

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final SD 4 – TB 9
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000022000441
TB001511109111
Team box
SD·TB
4
hits
11
1
home runs
2
3
walks
2
5
strikeouts
6
141
pitches thrown
126
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson MerrillSD2-3212
Yandy DiazTB2-5112
Cedric MullinsTB1-4212
Taylor WallsTB2-4201
Jorge MateoTB1-3001
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey Mize (L)SD5.06211
Shane McClanahan (W)TB5.23324

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +6
SD +6
123456789
largest lead: TB 6 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, TB 52% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.1 – 3.9 SD
Expected total
8.0
PadresThe matchupRays
+109Our fair odds−109
3.9Expected runs4.1
+0.11Power rating+0.12
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game8.7
1.10Home runs / game1.02
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
72−62Season record79−54
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · TB chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10948%+10548.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−10952%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more37%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 9 Kstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·TB
Aug 26 vs PIT
last game
Aug 26 at DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 133+ games
SD·TB
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.1
72−62
season record
79−54
41−28
home record
43−23
31−34
away record
36−31
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.7
1.10
home runs / game
1.02
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.0
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.41
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

SD · TB · 153 days
San Diego PadresTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TB 5−4
Apr 27, 2025at SDTB 4 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at SDTB 4 − 1
Apr 25, 2025at SDTB 1 − 0
Sep 1, 2024at TBSD 4 − 3
Aug 31, 2024at TBTB 11 − 4
Aug 30, 2024at TBSD 13 − 5
Jun 18, 2023at SDSD 5 − 4
Jun 17, 2023at SDSD 2 − 0
Jun 16, 2023at SDTB 6 − 2

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 26vs PIT3 − 0W
Aug 25vs PIT0 − 1L
Aug 24vs PIT2 − 3L
Aug 23vs MIN8 − 1W
Aug 22vs MIN7 − 5W
Aug 21vs MIN6 − 2W
Aug 19at NYM2 − 4L
Aug 18at NYM5 − 2W
Aug 17at NYM1 − 2L
Aug 16at CLE5 − 0W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 26at DET3 − 0W
Aug 25at DET1 − 4L
Aug 24at DET4 − 1W
Aug 23at BAL3 − 1W
Aug 22at BAL2 − 3L
Aug 21at BAL3 − 5L
Aug 20vs TOR1 − 5L
Aug 19vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 18vs TOR5 − 10L
Aug 17vs BAL7 − 6W