bayesRatings

Rays at Tigers

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final TB 3 – DET 0
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB020001000380
DET000000000020
Team box
TB·DET
8
hits
2
0
home runs
0
0
walks
0
4
strikeouts
6
119
pitches thrown
106
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cedric MullinsTB1-3001
Jonathan ArandaTB2-3100
Liam HicksTB1-3001
Junior CamineroTB2-4000
Jonny DeLucaTB1-4101
Dillon DinglerDET1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy Peralta (W)TB6.02004
Tyler Wells (S)TB1.00001
Troy Melton (L)DET7.07304

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · TB 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 50%, DET 50% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.4 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.4
RaysThe matchupTigers
+102Our fair odds−102
4.0Expected runs4.4
+0.11Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game3.9
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.03Home runs / game1.17
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
78−54Season record62−70
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · DET chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10250%+10149.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−10250%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more38%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.09 ERA, 13 Kstarted
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·DET
Aug 25 at DET
last game
Aug 25 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
TB·DET
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
78−54
season record
62−70
43−23
home record
33−32
35−31
away record
29−38
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.03
home runs / game
1.17
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.60
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TB · DET · 151 days
Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Aug 25at DETDET 4 − 1
Aug 24at DETTB 4 − 1
Jun 3at TBDET 7 − 2
Jun 2at TBDET 8 − 0
Jun 1at TBDET 10 − 9
Jul 9, 2025at DETTB 7 − 3
Jul 8, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at DETDET 5 − 1
Jun 22, 2025at TBDET 9 − 3
Jun 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 3

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 25at DET1 − 4L
Aug 24at DET4 − 1W
Aug 23at BAL3 − 1W
Aug 22at BAL2 − 3L
Aug 21at BAL3 − 5L
Aug 20vs TOR1 − 5L
Aug 19vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 18vs TOR5 − 10L
Aug 17vs BAL7 − 6W
Aug 16vs BAL2 − 10L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Aug 25vs TB4 − 1W
Aug 24vs TB1 − 4L
Aug 23at KC7 − 11L
Aug 22at KC1 − 3L
Aug 21at KC2 − 5L
Aug 19at PIT3 − 4L
Aug 18at PIT1 − 4L
Aug 17at PIT8 − 5W
Aug 16vs CHW5 − 7L
Aug 15vs CHW3 − 4L