bayesRatings

Rays at Tigers

MLB · Monday, Aug 24 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final TB 4 – DET 1
← MLB / Aug 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB200101000490
DET000100000151
Team box
TB·DET
9
hits
5
1
home runs
0
4
walks
1
3
strikeouts
12
156
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4112
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4001
Junior CamineroTB1-3001
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4000
Javier BaezDET1-3000
Dillon DinglerDET1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB6.03105
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01002
Framber Valdez (L)DET6.08320

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · TB 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, DET 51% · Updated Aug 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.4 – 4.1 TB
Expected total
8.5
RaysThe matchupTigers
+102Our fair odds−102
4.1Expected runs4.4
+0.11Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.0
8.7Hits / game8.2
1.04Home runs / game1.18
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
77−53Season record61−69
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · DET chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10249%−14258.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−10251%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more39%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 16 Kstarted
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·DET
Aug 23 at BAL
last game
Aug 23 at KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
TB·DET
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
77−53
season record
61−69
43−23
home record
32−31
34−30
away record
29−38
W1
streak
L5
3−7
last 10
2−8
8.7
hits / game
8.2
1.04
home runs / game
1.18
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.60
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TB · DET · 149 days
Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Jun 3at TBDET 7 − 2
Jun 2at TBDET 8 − 0
Jun 1at TBDET 10 − 9
Jul 9, 2025at DETTB 7 − 3
Jul 8, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at DETDET 5 − 1
Jun 22, 2025at TBDET 9 − 3
Jun 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at TBTB 14 − 8
Sep 26, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 23at BAL3 − 1W
Aug 22at BAL2 − 3L
Aug 21at BAL3 − 5L
Aug 20vs TOR1 − 5L
Aug 19vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 18vs TOR5 − 10L
Aug 17vs BAL7 − 6W
Aug 16vs BAL2 − 10L
Aug 15vs BAL3 − 4L
Aug 14vs BAL5 − 6L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Aug 23at KC7 − 11L
Aug 22at KC1 − 3L
Aug 21at KC2 − 5L
Aug 19at PIT3 − 4L
Aug 18at PIT1 − 4L
Aug 17at PIT8 − 5W
Aug 16vs CHW5 − 7L
Aug 15vs CHW3 − 4L
Aug 14vs CHW5 − 9L
Aug 13vs CLE3 − 0W