bayesRatings

Pirates at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 25 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final PIT 1 – SD 0
← MLB / Aug 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000001160
SD000000000030
Team box
PIT·SD
6
hits
3
1
home runs
0
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
8
139
pitches thrown
118
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oneil CruzPIT1-3111
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4000
Jared TrioloPIT1-3000
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-4000
Nick GonzalesPIT1-4000
Xander BogaertsSD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul SkenesPIT6.03004
Gregory Soto (W)PIT1.00000
Mason Montgomery (S)PIT1.00012
Michael KingSD7.05027
Mason Miller (L)SD1.01101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · PIT 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, SD 55% · Updated Aug 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.3 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
8.2
PiratesThe matchupPadres
+121Our fair odds−121
3.9Expected runs4.3
−0.01Power rating+0.11
4.9Runs / game4.3
4.7Allowed / game4.2
8.7Hits / game7.9
1.18Home runs / game1.12
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
64−69Season record71−61
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12145%+11446.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12155%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← PIT wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·SD
Aug 24 at SD
last game
Aug 24 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
PIT·SD
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.9
runs / game
4.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.2
64−69
season record
71−61
34−32
home record
40−27
30−37
away record
31−34
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
7.9
1.18
home runs / game
1.12
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.62
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

PIT · SD · 150 days
Pittsburgh PiratesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 7−3
Aug 24at SDPIT 3 − 2
Apr 8at PITSD 8 − 2
Apr 7at PITPIT 7 − 1
Apr 6at PITSD 5 − 0
Jun 1, 2025at SDSD 6 − 4
May 31, 2025at SDPIT 5 − 0
May 30, 2025at SDSD 3 − 2
May 4, 2025at PITSD 4 − 0
May 3, 2025at PITSD 2 − 1
May 2, 2025at PITSD 9 − 4

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 24at SD3 − 2W
Aug 23at LAD0 − 4L
Aug 22at LAD3 − 4L
Aug 21at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 19vs DET4 − 3W
Aug 18vs DET4 − 1W
Aug 17vs DET5 − 8L
Aug 16vs BOS8 − 3W
Aug 15vs BOS0 − 4L
Aug 14vs BOS8 − 4W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 24vs PIT2 − 3L
Aug 23vs MIN8 − 1W
Aug 22vs MIN7 − 5W
Aug 21vs MIN6 − 2W
Aug 19at NYM2 − 4L
Aug 18at NYM5 − 2W
Aug 17at NYM1 − 2L
Aug 16at CLE5 − 0W
Aug 15at CLE1 − 6L
Aug 14at CLE7 − 5W