bayesRatings

Mets at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final NYM 2 – TB 6
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM100000100231
TB101003016140
Team box
NYM·TB
3
hits
14
1
home runs
1
4
walks
1
10
strikeouts
4
122
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan ViladeTB3-5002
Francisco LindorNYM1-3112
Yandy DiazTB2-4211
Nick FortesTB2-4101
Junior CamineroTB2-5001
Victor Mesa Jr.TB3-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Manaea (L)NYM5.211512
Freddy Peralta (W)TB6.03107

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 4 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, TB 56% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
TB by 0.7
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 3.8 NYM
Expected total
8.3
MetsThe matchupRays
+129Our fair odds−129
3.8Expected runs4.5
−0.04Power rating+0.13
4.1Runs / game4.5
4.5Allowed / game4.1
7.9Hits / game8.7
1.20Home runs / game1.04
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
62−76Season record82−55
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · TB chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12944%+11446.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12956%−14258.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets+0.7our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 7.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·TB
Aug 31 at TB
last game
Aug 31 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
NYM·TB
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.1
runs / game
4.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
62−76
season record
82−55
32−39
home record
46−24
30−37
away record
36−31
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.7
1.20
home runs / game
1.04
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.0
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.61
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

NYM · TB · 157 days
New York MetsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
Aug 31at TBNYM 3 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at NYMTB 9 − 0
Jun 14, 2025at NYMTB 8 − 4
Jun 13, 2025at NYMTB 7 − 5
May 5, 2024at TBTB 7 − 6
May 4, 2024at TBTB 3 − 1
May 3, 2024at TBTB 10 − 8
May 18, 2023at NYMNYM 3 − 2
May 17, 2023at NYMNYM 8 − 7
May 16, 2023at NYMTB 8 − 5

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 31at TB3 − 2W
Aug 30vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 29vs HOU6 − 2W
Aug 28vs HOU1 − 3L
Aug 27vs MIL2 − 8L
Aug 26vs MIL1 − 8L
Aug 25vs MIL3 − 2W
Aug 23at CHW1 − 2L
Aug 22at CHW10 − 5W
Aug 21at CHW4 − 6L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 31vs NYM2 − 3L
Aug 30vs SD5 − 4W
Aug 29vs SD7 − 6W
Aug 28vs SD9 − 4W
Aug 26at DET3 − 0W
Aug 25at DET1 − 4L
Aug 24at DET4 − 1W
Aug 23at BAL3 − 1W
Aug 22at BAL2 − 3L
Aug 21at BAL3 − 5L