bayesRatings

Angels at Red Sox

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 12:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final LAA 2 – BOS 5
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000001010260
BOS04100000590
Team box
LAA·BOS
6
hits
9
1
home runs
2
3
walks
5
15
strikeouts
6
146
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Adley RutschmanBOS1-4113
Moises BallesterosLAA3-4111
Jarren DuranBOS2-4111
Eli WhiteBOS2-4001
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4100
Christian MooreLAA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grayson Rodriguez (L)LAA4.06543
Brayan Bello (W)BOS5.04027
Garrett Whitlock (S)BOS1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +5
LAA +5
123456789
largest lead: BOS 5 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 36%, BOS 64% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
BOS by 1.5
Expected score
BOS 4.9 – 3.4 LAA
Expected total
8.3
AngelsThe matchupRed Sox
+176Our fair odds−176
3.4Expected runs4.9
−0.30Power rating+0.19
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.6Allowed / game3.9
7.8Hits / game8.3
0.95Home runs / game1.03
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
54−89Season record79−65
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · BOS chance
Our model fair36.2%63.8%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+17636%+14640.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−17664%−17563.6%———
SpreadBOS by 1.5
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.5our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.5 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more49%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more37%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 17 Kstarted
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 12.51 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·BOS
Sep 6 at PIT
last game
Sep 6 at BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
LAA·BOS
−0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
54−89
season record
79−65
30−44
home record
35−34
24−45
away record
44−31
L1
streak
W4
2−8
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.3
0.95
home runs / game
1.03
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.55
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

LAA · BOS · 163 days
Los Angeles AngelsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Jul 5at LAABOS 7 − 5
Jul 4at LAABOS 8 − 1
Jul 3at LAABOS 5 − 2
Jun 25, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
Jun 24, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 23, 2025at LAALAA 9 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at BOSBOS 11 − 9
Jun 3, 2025at BOSLAA 4 − 3
Jun 2, 2025at BOSLAA 7 − 6
Apr 14, 2024at BOSBOS 5 − 4

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 6at PIT0 − 1L
Sep 5at PIT6 − 1W
Sep 4at PIT0 − 1L
Sep 2vs NYY3 − 6L
Sep 1vs NYY3 − 7L
Aug 31vs NYY10 − 1W
Aug 30vs PHI2 − 5L
Aug 29vs PHI2 − 4L
Aug 28vs PHI3 − 5L
Aug 26vs CLE3 − 4L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Sep 6at BAL3 − 1W
Sep 5at BAL5 − 0W
Sep 4at BAL1 − 0W
Sep 3at BAL6 − 5W
Sep 2vs SEA3 − 8L
Sep 1vs SEA6 − 9L
Aug 31vs SEA9 − 8W
Aug 30at NYY1 − 16L
Aug 29at NYY2 − 9L
Aug 29at NYY6 − 0W