bayesRatings

Red Sox at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Aug 30 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BOS 1 – NYY 16
← MLB / Aug 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000000010170
NYY0000511916180
Team box
BOS·NYY
7
hits
18
0
home runs
5
1
walks
7
7
strikeouts
4
184
pitches thrown
115
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin WellsNYY2-2225
Paul GoldschmidtNYY3-6213
Jose CaballeroNYY3-5313
Heliot RamosNYY2-2113
Amed RosarioNYY2-4101
Trevor StoryBOS2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ranger Suarez (L)BOS5.19622
Will Warren (W)NYY7.06117

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +15
BOS +15
123456789
largest lead: NYY 15 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, NYY 52% · Updated Aug 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.0 – 3.9 BOS
Expected total
7.9
Red SoxThe matchupYankees
+109Our fair odds−109
3.9Expected runs4.0
+0.21Power rating+0.21
4.5Runs / game4.5
3.7Allowed / game3.7
8.3Hits / game7.6
1.01Home runs / game1.35
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
74−62Season record77−59
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYY chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10948%−15460.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−10952%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more35%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more25%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 9 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYY
Aug 29 at NYY
last game
Aug 29 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 136+ games
BOS·NYY
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
4.5
runs / game
4.5
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
74−62
season record
77−59
34−32
home record
36−31
40−30
away record
41−28
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.6
1.01
home runs / game
1.35
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.54
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

BOS · NYY · 155 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Aug 29at NYYNYY 9 − 2
Aug 29at NYYBOS 6 − 0
Aug 28at NYYNYY 1 − 0
Jun 28at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jun 27at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jun 26at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jun 25at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 7at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Jun 5at NYYBOS 5 − 3
Apr 23at BOSNYY 4 − 2

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 29at NYY2 − 9L
Aug 29at NYY6 − 0W
Aug 28at NYY0 − 1L
Aug 26at MIA0 − 4L
Aug 25at MIA7 − 3W
Aug 24at MIA4 − 2W
Aug 23vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 22vs SF3 − 2W
Aug 21vs SF6 − 4W
Aug 19vs ARI6 − 7L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 29vs BOS9 − 2W
Aug 29vs BOS0 − 6L
Aug 28vs BOS1 − 0W
Aug 27vs HOU1 − 5L
Aug 26vs HOU9 − 3W
Aug 25vs HOU7 − 9L
Aug 23vs TOR8 − 3W
Aug 22vs TOR3 − 4L
Aug 21vs TOR3 − 1W
Aug 20at BAL6 − 1W