bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Yankees

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TOR 4 – NYY 3
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR1001100104150
NYY000000120342
Team box
TOR·NYY
15
hits
4
1
home runs
1
2
walks
5
6
strikeouts
12
154
pitches thrown
171
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan LukesTOR2-3112
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1-3112
George SpringerTOR3-5001
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY2-4000
Austin WellsNYY1-3001
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan Cease (W)TOR6.22158
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.01002
Ryan Weathers (L)NYY3.18203

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · TOR 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 44%, NYY 56% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
NYY by 0.9
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 3.6 TOR
Expected total
8.2
Blue JaysThe matchupYankees
+128Our fair odds−128
3.6Expected runs4.5
+0.03Power rating+0.21
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.3Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game7.6
0.95Home runs / game1.38
2.8Walks drawn / game3.6
63−67Season record73−55
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · NYY chance
Our model fair43.8%56.2%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+12844%−11252.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−12856%−10751.8%———
SpreadNYY by 0.9
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.9our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.9 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more44%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 27 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·NYY
Aug 21 at NYY
last game
Aug 21 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 128+ games
TOR·NYY
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.7
63−67
season record
73−55
33−33
home record
32−27
30−34
away record
41−28
L1
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
7.6
0.95
home runs / game
1.38
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.61
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TOR · NYY · 147 days
Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Aug 21at NYYNYY 3 − 1
Aug 16at TORNYY 4 − 3
Aug 15at TORTOR 4 − 1
Aug 14at TORTOR 3 − 1
Jun 14at TORNYY 8 − 3
Jun 13at TORNYY 3 − 1
Jun 12at TORTOR 8 − 5
May 21at NYYTOR 2 − 0
May 20at NYYTOR 2 − 1
May 19at NYYNYY 5 − 4

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 21at NYY1 − 3L
Aug 20at TB5 − 1W
Aug 19at TB6 − 7L
Aug 18at TB10 − 5W
Aug 16vs NYY3 − 4L
Aug 15vs NYY4 − 1W
Aug 14vs NYY3 − 1W
Aug 13vs BOS0 − 7L
Aug 12vs BOS6 − 4W
Aug 11vs BOS5 − 3W

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Aug 21vs TOR3 − 1W
Aug 20at BAL6 − 1W
Aug 19at BAL5 − 3W
Aug 18at BAL3 − 1W
Aug 16at TOR4 − 3W
Aug 15at TOR1 − 4L
Aug 14at TOR1 − 3L
Aug 13vs SEA0 − 1L
Aug 12vs SEA10 − 5W
Aug 11vs SEA4 − 1W