bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Aug 21 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TOR 1 – NYY 3
← MLB / Aug 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000010000190
NYY02010000341
Team box
TOR·NYY
9
hits
4
0
home runs
1
3
walks
5
8
strikeouts
12
143
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer JonesNYY1-3112
Brett BatemanTOR3-5100
Jesus SanchezTOR2-4000
Alejandro KirkTOR1-2001
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-4000
Heliot RamosNYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason FluhartyTOR0.20020
Spencer Arrighetti (L)TOR3.13324
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY6.06134
David Bednar (S)NYY1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 3 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 44%, NYY 56% · Updated Aug 21

Expected margin
NYY by 0.9
Expected score
NYY 4.6 – 3.7 TOR
Expected total
8.3
Blue JaysThe matchupYankees
+125Our fair odds−125
3.7Expected runs4.6
+0.03Power rating+0.20
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game7.6
0.95Home runs / game1.38
2.8Walks drawn / game3.6
63−66Season record72−55
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · NYY chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+12544%+16637.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−12556%−19966.6%———
SpreadNYY by 0.9
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.9our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.9 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more44%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORMason Fluharty RP · last 3 starts: 3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 4 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·NYY
Aug 20 at TB
last game
Aug 20 at BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 127+ games
TOR·NYY
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.7
63−66
season record
72−55
33−33
home record
31−27
30−33
away record
41−28
W1
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
7.6
0.95
home runs / game
1.38
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.61
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TOR · NYY · 146 days
Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Aug 16at TORNYY 4 − 3
Aug 15at TORTOR 4 − 1
Aug 14at TORTOR 3 − 1
Jun 14at TORNYY 8 − 3
Jun 13at TORNYY 3 − 1
Jun 12at TORTOR 8 − 5
May 21at NYYTOR 2 − 0
May 20at NYYTOR 2 − 1
May 19at NYYNYY 5 − 4
May 18at NYYNYY 7 − 6

TOR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Aug 20at TB5 − 1W
Aug 19at TB6 − 7L
Aug 18at TB10 − 5W
Aug 16vs NYY3 − 4L
Aug 15vs NYY4 − 1W
Aug 14vs NYY3 − 1W
Aug 13vs BOS0 − 7L
Aug 12vs BOS6 − 4W
Aug 11vs BOS5 − 3W
Aug 10vs BOS2 − 1W

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Aug 20at BAL6 − 1W
Aug 19at BAL5 − 3W
Aug 18at BAL3 − 1W
Aug 16at TOR4 − 3W
Aug 15at TOR1 − 4L
Aug 14at TOR1 − 3L
Aug 13vs SEA0 − 1L
Aug 12vs SEA10 − 5W
Aug 11vs SEA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs ATL1 − 2L