bayesRatings

Red Sox at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 6:15 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BOS 0 – NYY 1
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000000000050
NYY00100000131
Team box
BOS·NYY
5
hits
3
0
home runs
1
6
walks
4
9
strikeouts
11
118
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-4111
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4000
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-3000
Ben RiceNYY2-4000
Eli WhiteBOS1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick Sandoval (L)BOS5.13147
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY5.22058
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, NYY 52% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.0 – 4.0 BOS
Expected total
8.0
Red SoxThe matchupYankees
+107Our fair odds−107
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.20Power rating+0.20
4.5Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game3.7
8.4Hits / game7.6
1.02Home runs / game1.38
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
73−60Season record75−58
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYY chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10748%+12943.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−10752%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red SoxPKour margin————
NYYNew York YankeesPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more34%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more24%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPatrick Sandoval SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYY
Aug 26 at MIA
last game
Aug 27 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 133+ games
BOS·NYY
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
4.5
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.7
73−60
season record
75−58
34−32
home record
34−30
39−28
away record
41−28
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
7.6
1.02
home runs / game
1.38
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.54
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

BOS · NYY · 153 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Jun 28at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jun 27at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jun 26at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jun 25at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 7at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Jun 5at NYYBOS 5 − 3
Apr 23at BOSNYY 4 − 2
Apr 22at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Apr 21at BOSNYY 4 − 0
Oct 2, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0post

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 26at MIA0 − 4L
Aug 25at MIA7 − 3W
Aug 24at MIA4 − 2W
Aug 23vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 22vs SF3 − 2W
Aug 21vs SF6 − 4W
Aug 19vs ARI6 − 7L
Aug 18vs ARI9 − 4W
Aug 17vs ARI11 − 1W
Aug 16at PIT3 − 8L

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 27vs HOU1 − 5L
Aug 26vs HOU9 − 3W
Aug 25vs HOU7 − 9L
Aug 23vs TOR8 − 3W
Aug 22vs TOR3 − 4L
Aug 21vs TOR3 − 1W
Aug 20at BAL6 − 1W
Aug 19at BAL5 − 3W
Aug 18at BAL3 − 1W
Aug 16at TOR4 − 3W