bayesRatings

Yankees at Angels

MLB · Monday, Aug 31 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final NYY 1 – LAA 10
← MLB / Aug 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000010000163
LAA0013210310120
Team box
NYY·LAA
6
hits
12
1
home runs
0
0
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
189
pitches thrown
118
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vaughn GrissomLAA3-5204
Mike TroutLAA2-5102
Christian MooreLAA2-5102
Spencer JonesNYY1-3111
Wade MecklerLAA2-3000
Zach NetoLAA1-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Elmer Rodriguez (L)NYY3.24435
Walbert Urena (W)LAA7.05108

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +9
NYY +9
123456789
largest lead: LAA 9 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 62%, LAA 38% · Updated Aug 31

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 4.9 – 3.5 LAA
Expected total
8.4
YankeesThe matchupAngels
−161Our fair odds+161
4.9Expected runs3.5
+0.24Power rating−0.31
4.5Runs / game4.1
3.7Allowed / game4.6
7.7Hits / game7.8
1.38Home runs / game0.97
3.6Walks drawn / game3.1
78−59Season record52−85
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · LAA chance
Our model fair61.6%38.4%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−16162%−13156.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+16138%+10947.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byLAA wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more37%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYElmer Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·LAA
Aug 30 vs BOS
last game
Aug 30 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
NYY·LAA
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
4.5
runs / game
4.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
78−59
season record
52−85
37−31
home record
29−42
41−28
away record
23−43
W2
streak
L7
6−4
last 10
2−8
7.7
hits / game
7.8
1.38
home runs / game
0.97
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.57
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

NYY · LAA · 156 days
New York YankeesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Apr 16at NYYLAA 11 − 4
Apr 15at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Apr 14at NYYLAA 7 − 1
Apr 13at NYYNYY 11 − 10
Jun 19, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at NYYLAA 3 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at NYYLAA 4 − 0
Jun 16, 2025at NYYLAA 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at LAANYY 1 − 0
May 27, 2025at LAANYY 3 − 2

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 30vs BOS16 − 1W
Aug 29vs BOS9 − 2W
Aug 29vs BOS0 − 6L
Aug 28vs BOS1 − 0W
Aug 27vs HOU1 − 5L
Aug 26vs HOU9 − 3W
Aug 25vs HOU7 − 9L
Aug 23vs TOR8 − 3W
Aug 22vs TOR3 − 4L
Aug 21vs TOR3 − 1W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Aug 30vs PHI2 − 5L
Aug 29vs PHI2 − 4L
Aug 28vs PHI3 − 5L
Aug 26vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 25vs CLE6 − 8L
Aug 24vs CLE2 − 4L
Aug 23at TEX3 − 5L
Aug 22at TEX3 − 0W
Aug 21at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 20at HOU18 − 3W