bayesRatings

Yankees at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final NYY 7 – LAA 3
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY3010000217140
LAA001002000390
Team box
NYY·LAA
14
hits
9
2
home runs
0
4
walks
1
12
strikeouts
8
145
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer JonesNYY2-3213
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY3-5211
Wade MecklerLAA3-4101
Christian MooreLAA1-4002
Cody BellingerNYY3-5200
Zach NetoLAA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gerrit Cole (W)NYY5.18315
Grayson Rodriguez (L)LAA6.07427

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · NYY 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 60%, LAA 40% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
NYY by 1.2
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.6 LAA
Expected total
8.5
YankeesThe matchupAngels
−152Our fair odds+152
4.8Expected runs3.6
+0.21Power rating−0.29
4.5Runs / game4.1
3.7Allowed / game4.6
7.7Hits / game7.8
1.38Home runs / game0.96
3.6Walks drawn / game3.1
78−60Season record53−85
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · LAA chance
Our model fair60.3%39.7%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−15260%−18364.6%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+15240%+15239.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.2
NYYNew York Yankees−1.2our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.2 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byLAA wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more46%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·LAA
Aug 31 at LAA
last game
Aug 31 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 138+ games
NYY·LAA
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
4.5
runs / game
4.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
78−60
season record
53−85
37−31
home record
30−42
41−29
away record
23−43
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
7.7
hits / game
7.8
1.38
home runs / game
0.96
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.59
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

NYY · LAA · 157 days
New York YankeesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 6−4
Aug 31at LAALAA 10 − 1
Apr 16at NYYLAA 11 − 4
Apr 15at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Apr 14at NYYLAA 7 − 1
Apr 13at NYYNYY 11 − 10
Jun 19, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at NYYLAA 3 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at NYYLAA 4 − 0
Jun 16, 2025at NYYLAA 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at LAANYY 1 − 0

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 31at LAA1 − 10L
Aug 30vs BOS16 − 1W
Aug 29vs BOS9 − 2W
Aug 29vs BOS0 − 6L
Aug 28vs BOS1 − 0W
Aug 27vs HOU1 − 5L
Aug 26vs HOU9 − 3W
Aug 25vs HOU7 − 9L
Aug 23vs TOR8 − 3W
Aug 22vs TOR3 − 4L

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Aug 31vs NYY10 − 1W
Aug 30vs PHI2 − 5L
Aug 29vs PHI2 − 4L
Aug 28vs PHI3 − 5L
Aug 26vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 25vs CLE6 − 8L
Aug 24vs CLE2 − 4L
Aug 23at TEX3 − 5L
Aug 22at TEX3 − 0W
Aug 21at TEX1 − 2L