bayesRatings

Angels at Pirates

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final LAA 0 – PIT 1
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000000040
PIT01000000150
Team box
LAA·PIT
4
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
12
strikeouts
10
125
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4000
Jake MangumPIT1-3001
Mike TroutLAA1-4000
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-3000
Wade MecklerLAA1-4000
Moises BallesterosLAA1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Johnson (L)LAA6.04126
Jared Jones (W)PIT6.03019
Mason Montgomery (S)PIT1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 1 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 41%, PIT 59% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
PIT by 0.9
Expected score
PIT 5.0 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
9.1
AngelsThe matchupPirates
+146Our fair odds−146
4.1Expected runs5.0
−0.31Power rating−0.00
4.1Runs / game4.9
4.7Allowed / game4.7
7.8Hits / game8.7
0.96Home runs / game1.16
3.1Walks drawn / game3.6
53−87Season record69−72
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair40.7%59.3%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14641%+15938.6%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−14659%−19165.6%———
SpreadPIT by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more43%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 9 Kstarted
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·PIT
Sep 2 vs NYY
last game
Sep 3 vs SF
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
LAA·PIT
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.1
runs / game
4.9
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
53−87
season record
69−72
30−44
home record
36−33
23−43
away record
33−39
L2
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.7
0.96
home runs / game
1.16
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.56
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

LAA · PIT · 160 days
Los Angeles AngelsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PIT 4−5
Apr 24, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Apr 23, 2025at LAAPIT 3 − 0
Apr 22, 2025at LAAPIT 9 − 3
May 8, 2024at PITLAA 5 − 4
May 7, 2024at PITLAA 9 − 0
May 6, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 1
Jul 23, 2023at LAALAA 7 − 5
Jul 22, 2023at LAAPIT 3 − 0
Jul 21, 2023at LAALAA 8 − 5

LAA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Sep 2vs NYY3 − 6L
Sep 1vs NYY3 − 7L
Aug 31vs NYY10 − 1W
Aug 30vs PHI2 − 5L
Aug 29vs PHI2 − 4L
Aug 28vs PHI3 − 5L
Aug 26vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 25vs CLE6 − 8L
Aug 24vs CLE2 − 4L
Aug 23at TEX3 − 5L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 3vs SF5 − 2W
Sep 2vs SF4 − 5L
Sep 1vs SF13 − 12W
Aug 30at STL5 − 4W
Aug 29at STL6 − 2W
Aug 28at STL1 − 4L
Aug 26at SD0 − 3L
Aug 25at SD1 − 0W
Aug 24at SD3 − 2W
Aug 23at LAD0 − 4L