bayesRatings

Giants at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final SF 12 – PIT 13
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF05000205012161
PIT20900010113190
Team box
SF·PIT
16
hits
19
1
home runs
1
8
walks
4
8
strikeouts
8
193
pitches thrown
192
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oneil CruzPIT4-6104
Brandon LowePIT4-6311
Rafael DeversSF1-4113
Turner HillSF4-5201
Drew CavanaughSF3-5102
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-6102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan WebbSF2.09921
Carson Seymour (L)SF0.22000
Paul SkenesPIT4.28534
Mason Montgomery (W)PIT1.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +6
SF +6
123456789
largest lead: PIT 6 · SF 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, PIT 55% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
PIT by 0.5
Expected score
PIT 4.7 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
8.9
GiantsThe matchupPirates
+124Our fair odds−124
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.14Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game4.8
4.6Allowed / game4.7
8.4Hits / game8.7
1.12Home runs / game1.17
2.7Walks drawn / game3.5
57−81Season record67−71
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · PIT chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi40.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12445%+14640.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−12455%−16862.7%———
SpreadPIT by 0.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more40%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more30%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 15 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·PIT
Aug 31 at ATL
last game
Aug 30 at STL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 138+ games
SF·PIT
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
4.8
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.7
57−81
season record
67−71
33−36
home record
34−32
24−45
away record
33−39
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.7
1.12
home runs / game
1.17
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.65
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

SF · PIT · 157 days
San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
May 10at SFSF 7 − 6
May 9at SFPIT 13 − 3
May 8at SFSF 5 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at PITSF 4 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at PITSF 8 − 1
Aug 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at SFPIT 2 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at SFPIT 3 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at SFPIT 6 − 5
May 23, 2024at PITSF 7 − 6

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 31at ATL7 − 3W
Aug 29vs ARI7 − 2W
Aug 29vs ARI1 − 7L
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W
Aug 26vs CIN9 − 10L
Aug 25vs CIN3 − 1W
Aug 24vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 23at BOS4 − 5L
Aug 22at BOS2 − 3L

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 30at STL5 − 4W
Aug 29at STL6 − 2W
Aug 28at STL1 − 4L
Aug 26at SD0 − 3L
Aug 25at SD1 − 0W
Aug 24at SD3 − 2W
Aug 23at LAD0 − 4L
Aug 22at LAD3 − 4L
Aug 21at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 19vs DET4 − 3W