bayesRatings

Pirates at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final PIT 1 – STL 4
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000010000163
STL00210001480
Team box
PIT·STL
6
hits
8
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
11
strikeouts
8
121
pitches thrown
142
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jimmy CrooksSTL1-3112
Jared TrioloPIT2-3001
Jordan WalkerSTL3-4200
Oneil CruzPIT2-4000
Jose FerminSTL2-4000
Nick GonzalesPIT1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared Jones (L)PIT4.27316
Quinn Mathews (W)STL5.25117
Ryne Stanek (S)STL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 49%, STL 51% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.5 – 4.4 STL
Expected total
8.9
PiratesThe matchupCardinals
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.01Power rating−0.03
4.9Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.17Home runs / game1.04
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
65−70Season record67−68
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10649%−11653.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10651%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins bySTL wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more27%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 8.25 ERA, 15 Kstarted
STLQuinn Mathews SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·STL
Aug 26 at SD
last game
Aug 27 vs BAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
PIT·STL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.9
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
65−70
season record
67−68
34−32
home record
33−36
31−38
away record
34−32
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.17
home runs / game
1.04
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.62
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

PIT · STL · 153 days
Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
May 21at STLPIT 6 − 2
May 20at STLPIT 7 − 0
May 19at STLSTL 9 − 6
Apr 30at PITSTL 10 − 5
Apr 29at PITSTL 5 − 4
Apr 28at PITSTL 11 − 7
Apr 27at PITSTL 4 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at STLPIT 2 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at STLPIT 8 − 3

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 26at SD0 − 3L
Aug 25at SD1 − 0W
Aug 24at SD3 − 2W
Aug 23at LAD0 − 4L
Aug 22at LAD3 − 4L
Aug 21at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 19vs DET4 − 3W
Aug 18vs DET4 − 1W
Aug 17vs DET5 − 8L
Aug 16vs BOS8 − 3W

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 27vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 26vs BAL7 − 8L
Aug 25vs BAL1 − 13L
Aug 23at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 22at PHI3 − 12L
Aug 21at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 20at CIN10 − 9W
Aug 19at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 18at CIN3 − 0W
Aug 17at CIN5 − 6L