bayesRatings

Pirates at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Aug 30 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final PIT 5 – STL 4
← MLB / Aug 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT021010100580
STL000020200491
Team box
PIT·STL
8
hits
9
2
home runs
0
4
walks
3
15
strikeouts
6
125
pitches thrown
172
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1-4112
Ivan HerreraSTL2-5002
Jared TrioloPIT1-4111
Brandon LowePIT2-4101
Thomas SaggeseSTL3-4200
Bryan TorresSTL2-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton Ashcraft (W)PIT5.06213
Mason Montgomery (S)PIT1.00000
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL5.26329

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +4
PIT +4
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · PIT 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, STL 52% · Updated Aug 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.5 – 4.4 STL
Expected total
8.8
PiratesThe matchupCardinals
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.01Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.17Home runs / game1.04
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
66−71Season record68−69
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10648%−13156.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10652%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins bySTL wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more27%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 23.0 IP, 1.17 ERA, 16 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 7.63 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·STL
Aug 29 at STL
last game
Aug 29 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
PIT·STL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
66−71
season record
68−69
34−32
home record
34−37
32−39
away record
34−32
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.17
home runs / game
1.04
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.66
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

PIT · STL · 155 days
Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
Aug 29at STLPIT 6 − 2
Aug 28at STLSTL 4 − 1
May 21at STLPIT 6 − 2
May 20at STLPIT 7 − 0
May 19at STLSTL 9 − 6
Apr 30at PITSTL 10 − 5
Apr 29at PITSTL 5 − 4
Apr 28at PITSTL 11 − 7
Apr 27at PITSTL 4 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 1

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 29at STL6 − 2W
Aug 28at STL1 − 4L
Aug 26at SD0 − 3L
Aug 25at SD1 − 0W
Aug 24at SD3 − 2W
Aug 23at LAD0 − 4L
Aug 22at LAD3 − 4L
Aug 21at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 19vs DET4 − 3W
Aug 18vs DET4 − 1W

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 29vs PIT2 − 6L
Aug 28vs PIT4 − 1W
Aug 27vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 26vs BAL7 − 8L
Aug 25vs BAL1 − 13L
Aug 23at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 22at PHI3 − 12L
Aug 21at PHI6 − 7L
Aug 20at CIN10 − 9W
Aug 19at CIN4 − 5L