bayesRatings

Giants at Pirates

MLB · Thursday, Sep 3 · 11:35 AM CT · PNC Park · Final SF 2 – PIT 5
← MLB / Sep 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000000200221
PIT20000201550
Team box
SF·PIT
2
hits
5
0
home runs
0
5
walks
7
9
strikeouts
6
155
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake MangumPIT1-1201
Jared TrioloPIT0-3002
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-2001
Oneil CruzPIT0-1101
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-5100
Nick GonzalesPIT1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Blade Tidwell (L)SF5.02255
Lake BacharPIT2.10023
Khristian Curtis (W)PIT3.01232
Mason Montgomery (S)PIT1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
SF +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 4 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, PIT 55% · Updated Sep 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.8 – 4.3 SF
Expected total
9.1
GiantsThe matchupPirates
+122Our fair odds−122
4.3Expected runs4.8
−0.13Power rating−0.01
4.2Runs / game4.9
4.7Allowed / game4.7
8.4Hits / game8.7
1.12Home runs / game1.16
2.7Walks drawn / game3.6
58−82Season record68−72
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · PIT chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi40.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12245%+14640.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−12255%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFBlade Tidwell SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PITLake Bachar RP · last 3 starts: 7.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·PIT
Sep 2 at PIT
last game
Sep 2 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
SF·PIT
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.2
runs / game
4.9
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
58−82
season record
68−72
33−36
home record
35−33
25−46
away record
33−39
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.7
1.12
home runs / game
1.16
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.65
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

SF · PIT · 159 days
San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Sep 2at PITSF 5 − 4
Sep 1at PITPIT 13 − 12
May 10at SFSF 7 − 6
May 9at SFPIT 13 − 3
May 8at SFSF 5 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at PITSF 4 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at PITSF 8 − 1
Aug 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at SFPIT 2 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at SFPIT 3 − 1

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 2at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 1at PIT12 − 13L
Aug 31at ATL7 − 3W
Aug 29vs ARI7 − 2W
Aug 29vs ARI1 − 7L
Aug 28vs ARI6 − 10L
Aug 27vs ARI6 − 1W
Aug 26vs CIN9 − 10L
Aug 25vs CIN3 − 1W
Aug 24vs CIN5 − 0W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 2vs SF4 − 5L
Sep 1vs SF13 − 12W
Aug 30at STL5 − 4W
Aug 29at STL6 − 2W
Aug 28at STL1 − 4L
Aug 26at SD0 − 3L
Aug 25at SD1 − 0W
Aug 24at SD3 − 2W
Aug 23at LAD0 − 4L
Aug 22at LAD3 − 4L