bayesRatings

Angels at Pirates

MLB · Saturday, Sep 5 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final LAA 6 – PIT 1
← MLB / Sep 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0001203006120
PIT000000010180
Team box
LAA·PIT
12
hits
8
1
home runs
1
0
walks
4
13
strikeouts
9
136
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan ReynoldsPIT3-3111
Wade MecklerLAA2-5102
Zach NetoLAA3-5101
Josh LoweLAA1-4111
Mike TroutLAA2-4101
Moises BallesterosLAA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yusei Kikuchi (W)LAA6.05036
Braxton Ashcraft (L)PIT5.07309

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +6
LAA +6
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · LAA 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 40%, PIT 60% · Updated Sep 5

Expected margin
PIT by 0.9
Expected score
PIT 5.0 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
9.0
AngelsThe matchupPirates
+147Our fair odds−147
4.0Expected runs5.0
−0.31Power rating+0.00
4.0Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game4.7
7.8Hits / game8.7
0.96Home runs / game1.15
3.1Walks drawn / game3.6
53−88Season record70−72
1−9Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14740%+15938.6%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−14760%−19165.6%———
SpreadPIT by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more43%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAYusei Kikuchi SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·PIT
Sep 4 at PIT
last game
Sep 4 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
LAA·PIT
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.0
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.7
53−88
season record
70−72
30−44
home record
37−33
23−44
away record
33−39
L3
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
8.7
0.96
home runs / game
1.15
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.56
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

LAA · PIT · 161 days
Los Angeles AngelsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Sep 4at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 24, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Apr 23, 2025at LAAPIT 3 − 0
Apr 22, 2025at LAAPIT 9 − 3
May 8, 2024at PITLAA 5 − 4
May 7, 2024at PITLAA 9 − 0
May 6, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 1
Jul 23, 2023at LAALAA 7 − 5
Jul 22, 2023at LAAPIT 3 − 0
Jul 21, 2023at LAALAA 8 − 5

LAA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Sep 4at PIT0 − 1L
Sep 2vs NYY3 − 6L
Sep 1vs NYY3 − 7L
Aug 31vs NYY10 − 1W
Aug 30vs PHI2 − 5L
Aug 29vs PHI2 − 4L
Aug 28vs PHI3 − 5L
Aug 26vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 25vs CLE6 − 8L
Aug 24vs CLE2 − 4L

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 4vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 3vs SF5 − 2W
Sep 2vs SF4 − 5L
Sep 1vs SF13 − 12W
Aug 30at STL5 − 4W
Aug 29at STL6 − 2W
Aug 28at STL1 − 4L
Aug 26at SD0 − 3L
Aug 25at SD1 − 0W
Aug 24at SD3 − 2W