bayesRatings

Red Sox at Orioles

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 6:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final BOS 1 – BAL 0
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS100000000150
BAL000000000062
Team box
BOS·BAL
5
hits
6
1
home runs
0
4
walks
1
11
strikeouts
4
112
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mickey GasperBOS2-4111
Blaze AlexanderBAL3-4000
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4000
Coby MayoBAL1-3000
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1-4000
Trevor StoryBOS1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ranger Suarez (W)BOS7.05013
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00001
Shane Baz (L)BAL6.14126

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · BOS 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 53%, BAL 47% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.8 – 4.1 BAL
Expected total
8.8
Red SoxThe matchupOrioles
−113Our fair odds+113
4.8Expected runs4.1
+0.16Power rating−0.04
4.5Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.7
8.4Hits / game7.8
1.04Home runs / game1.22
3.2Walks drawn / game3.7
76−65Season record69−72
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · BAL chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−11353%−11653.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11347%−10350.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byBAL wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 9 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·BAL
Sep 3 at BAL
last game
Sep 3 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
BOS·BAL
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.5
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.7
76−65
season record
69−72
35−34
home record
34−35
41−31
away record
35−37
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
7.8
1.04
home runs / game
1.22
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.53
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BOS · BAL · 160 days
Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
Sep 3at BALBOS 6 − 5
Jul 22at BOSBAL 5 − 1
Jul 22at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jul 20at BOSBOS 6 − 5
Jun 4at BOSBAL 8 − 2
Jun 3at BOSBOS 8 − 1
Jun 2at BOSBAL 4 − 2
Apr 26at BALBOS 5 − 3
Apr 25at BALBOS 17 − 1
Apr 24at BALBAL 10 − 3

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 3at BAL6 − 5W
Sep 2vs SEA3 − 8L
Sep 1vs SEA6 − 9L
Aug 31vs SEA9 − 8W
Aug 30at NYY1 − 16L
Aug 29at NYY2 − 9L
Aug 29at NYY6 − 0W
Aug 28at NYY0 − 1L
Aug 26at MIA0 − 4L
Aug 25at MIA7 − 3W

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Sep 3vs BOS5 − 6L
Sep 2at COL5 − 6L
Sep 1at COL2 − 4L
Aug 31at COL2 − 1W
Aug 30at ATH8 − 5W
Aug 29at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 28at ATH4 − 3W
Aug 27at STL5 − 7L
Aug 26at STL8 − 7W
Aug 25at STL13 − 1W